Forecast models from agencies like the National Weather Service indicate a strong heat wave over the Northeast on July 3, 2026, driven by high pressure, southerly flow advecting warm, humid air masses, and ample solar heating under mostly clear skies. This setup supports daily highs in the 100–105°F range for New York City, well above the July average near 84°F, with the urban heat island effect potentially adding 2–4°F in Manhattan. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 100–103°F because ensemble guidance shows minor spread in peak timing, boundary-layer mixing, and any late-day convective clouds or showers that could trim the maximum by a degree or two. Higher outcomes above 106°F remain lower-probability outliers unless subsidence strengthens further, while cooler results below 100°F would require unexpected cloud cover or a faster frontal passage. Updated model runs and official National Weather Service briefings tomorrow morning will refine the exact threshold before market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in NYC on July 3?
Highest temperature in NYC on July 3?
100-101°F 59%
102-103°F 26%
98-99°F 13.6%
104-105°F 3.3%
$72,659 Vol.
$72,659 Vol.
3 jul 2026
97°F or below
<1%
98-99°F
14%
100-101°F
59%
102-103°F
26%
104-105°F
3%
106-107°F
1%
108-109°F
<1%
110-111°F
<1%
112-113°F
<1%
114-115°F
<1%
116°F or higher
<1%
100-101°F 59%
102-103°F 26%
98-99°F 13.6%
104-105°F 3.3%
$72,659 Vol.
$72,659 Vol.
3 jul 2026
97°F or below
$18,907 Vol.
<1%
98-99°F
$16,512 Vol.
14%
100-101°F
$11,345 Vol.
59%
102-103°F
$6,654 Vol.
26%
104-105°F
$6,799 Vol.
3%
106-107°F
$4,004 Vol.
1%
108-109°F
$4,108 Vol.
<1%
110-111°F
$1,992 Vol.
<1%
112-113°F
$712 Vol.
<1%
114-115°F
$1,799 Vol.
<1%
116°F or higher
$167 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like the National Weather Service indicate a strong heat wave over the Northeast on July 3, 2026, driven by high pressure, southerly flow advecting warm, humid air masses, and ample solar heating under mostly clear skies. This setup supports daily highs in the 100–105°F range for New York City, well above the July average near 84°F, with the urban heat island effect potentially adding 2–4°F in Manhattan. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 100–103°F because ensemble guidance shows minor spread in peak timing, boundary-layer mixing, and any late-day convective clouds or showers that could trim the maximum by a degree or two. Higher outcomes above 106°F remain lower-probability outliers unless subsidence strengthens further, while cooler results below 100°F would require unexpected cloud cover or a faster frontal passage. Updated model runs and official National Weather Service briefings tomorrow morning will refine the exact threshold before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jul 1, 2026, 10:02 PM ET
Volumen
$72,659Fecha de finalización
3 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 1, 2026, 10:02 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like the National Weather Service indicate a strong heat wave over the Northeast on July 3, 2026, driven by high pressure, southerly flow advecting warm, humid air masses, and ample solar heating under mostly clear skies. This setup supports daily highs in the 100–105°F range for New York City, well above the July average near 84°F, with the urban heat island effect potentially adding 2–4°F in Manhattan. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 100–103°F because ensemble guidance shows minor spread in peak timing, boundary-layer mixing, and any late-day convective clouds or showers that could trim the maximum by a degree or two. Higher outcomes above 106°F remain lower-probability outliers unless subsidence strengthens further, while cooler results below 100°F would require unexpected cloud cover or a faster frontal passage. Updated model runs and official National Weather Service briefings tomorrow morning will refine the exact threshold before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$72,659Fecha de finalización
3 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 1, 2026, 10:02 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies like the National Weather Service indicate a strong heat wave over the Northeast on July 3, 2026, driven by high pressure, southerly flow advecting warm, humid air masses, and ample solar heating under mostly clear skies. This setup supports daily highs in the 100–105°F range for New York City, well above the July average near 84°F, with the urban heat island effect potentially adding 2–4°F in Manhattan. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 100–103°F because ensemble guidance shows minor spread in peak timing, boundary-layer mixing, and any late-day convective clouds or showers that could trim the maximum by a degree or two. Higher outcomes above 106°F remain lower-probability outliers unless subsidence strengthens further, while cooler results below 100°F would require unexpected cloud cover or a faster frontal passage. Updated model runs and official National Weather Service briefings tomorrow morning will refine the exact threshold before market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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