Latest National Weather Service forecasts project Seattle highs near 71–74°F on July 11, driven by persistent marine layer influence, moderate onshore flow, and absence of strong high pressure or downslope warming. This aligns with recent model consensus showing stable conditions after earlier July warmth, tempered by typical Puget Sound sea breezes that cap afternoon peaks. El Niño development supports a broader warmer-than-average summer outlook, yet short-term guidance keeps the day near seasonal norms rather than pushing into the 80s. The tight clustering of market probabilities across the 70–73°F bins reflects minor uncertainties in exact timing of any clearing, wind shifts, or boundary layer mixing that could differentiate outcomes by just 1–2°F. Updated model runs and evening observations will further refine resolution criteria.