Recent official forecasts from MetService and NIWA indicate a maximum temperature near 9°C in Wellington on August 5, driven by persistent southerly airflow, partial cloud cover, and limited daytime heating during peak winter conditions. This positions traders to heavily favor the 9°C outcome at 99.9% implied probability, consistent with model consensus on a transient cold outbreak where Wellington's August climatological mean maximum hovers around 12°C but drops several degrees with strong southerlies and minimal insolation. Key supporting factors include stable high-pressure setups steering polar maritime air and typical mid-winter radiative cooling. A shift to northerly flows, delayed frontal passage, or revised observational data from the primary station could realistically push the peak to 10°C or higher, while faster clearing or measurement adjustments might lock it at or below 8°C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Wellington el 5 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Wellington el 5 de agosto?
9°C 99.8%
10°C <1%
3°C or below <1%
4°C <1%
$178,932 Vol.
$178,932 Vol.
5 ago 2026
3°C or below
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
100%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C or higher
<1%
9°C 99.8%
10°C <1%
3°C or below <1%
4°C <1%
$178,932 Vol.
$178,932 Vol.
5 ago 2026
3°C or below
$1,150 Vol.
<1%
4°C
$1,080 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$3,076 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$21,476 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$31,532 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$64,007 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$20,108 Vol.
100%
10°C
$17,608 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$11,549 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$4,041 Vol.
<1%
13°C or higher
$3,383 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from MetService and NIWA indicate a maximum temperature near 9°C in Wellington on August 5, driven by persistent southerly airflow, partial cloud cover, and limited daytime heating during peak winter conditions. This positions traders to heavily favor the 9°C outcome at 99.9% implied probability, consistent with model consensus on a transient cold outbreak where Wellington's August climatological mean maximum hovers around 12°C but drops several degrees with strong southerlies and minimal insolation. Key supporting factors include stable high-pressure setups steering polar maritime air and typical mid-winter radiative cooling. A shift to northerly flows, delayed frontal passage, or revised observational data from the primary station could realistically push the peak to 10°C or higher, while faster clearing or measurement adjustments might lock it at or below 8°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volumen
$178,932Fecha de finalización
5 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from MetService and NIWA indicate a maximum temperature near 9°C in Wellington on August 5, driven by persistent southerly airflow, partial cloud cover, and limited daytime heating during peak winter conditions. This positions traders to heavily favor the 9°C outcome at 99.9% implied probability, consistent with model consensus on a transient cold outbreak where Wellington's August climatological mean maximum hovers around 12°C but drops several degrees with strong southerlies and minimal insolation. Key supporting factors include stable high-pressure setups steering polar maritime air and typical mid-winter radiative cooling. A shift to northerly flows, delayed frontal passage, or revised observational data from the primary station could realistically push the peak to 10°C or higher, while faster clearing or measurement adjustments might lock it at or below 8°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$178,932Fecha de finalización
5 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from MetService and NIWA indicate a maximum temperature near 9°C in Wellington on August 5, driven by persistent southerly airflow, partial cloud cover, and limited daytime heating during peak winter conditions. This positions traders to heavily favor the 9°C outcome at 99.9% implied probability, consistent with model consensus on a transient cold outbreak where Wellington's August climatological mean maximum hovers around 12°C but drops several degrees with strong southerlies and minimal insolation. Key supporting factors include stable high-pressure setups steering polar maritime air and typical mid-winter radiative cooling. A shift to northerly flows, delayed frontal passage, or revised observational data from the primary station could realistically push the peak to 10°C or higher, while faster clearing or measurement adjustments might lock it at or below 8°C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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