Recent polls project Likud receiving 19–26 Knesset seats in the October 27 election, down from its 32 seats in 2022, as opposition parties including Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar (often 23–25 seats) and the Bennett-Lapid Together list draw support. The governing coalition bloc consistently falls short of the 61-seat majority threshold at 43–52 seats, reflecting sustained voter concerns over security leadership since October 2023 and the emergence of new right-wing lists that fragment traditional Likud-aligned votes. Likud primaries and coalition maneuvering have not reversed these trends, while Eisenkot maintains an edge in suitability ratings. These dynamics underpin the strong trader consensus that Likud will lose seats.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado92% probabilidad
$15,275 Vol.
$15,275 Vol.
26 oct 2026
92% probabilidad
$15,275 Vol.
$15,275 Vol.
26 oct 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls project Likud receiving 19–26 Knesset seats in the October 27 election, down from its 32 seats in 2022, as opposition parties including Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar (often 23–25 seats) and the Bennett-Lapid Together list draw support. The governing coalition bloc consistently falls short of the 61-seat majority threshold at 43–52 seats, reflecting sustained voter concerns over security leadership since October 2023 and the emergence of new right-wing lists that fragment traditional Likud-aligned votes. Likud primaries and coalition maneuvering have not reversed these trends, while Eisenkot maintains an edge in suitability ratings. These dynamics underpin the strong trader consensus that Likud will lose seats.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Volumen
$15,275Fecha de finalización
27 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls project Likud receiving 19–26 Knesset seats in the October 27 election, down from its 32 seats in 2022, as opposition parties including Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar (often 23–25 seats) and the Bennett-Lapid Together list draw support. The governing coalition bloc consistently falls short of the 61-seat majority threshold at 43–52 seats, reflecting sustained voter concerns over security leadership since October 2023 and the emergence of new right-wing lists that fragment traditional Likud-aligned votes. Likud primaries and coalition maneuvering have not reversed these trends, while Eisenkot maintains an edge in suitability ratings. These dynamics underpin the strong trader consensus that Likud will lose seats.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volumen
$15,275Fecha de finalización
27 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls project Likud receiving 19–26 Knesset seats in the October 27 election, down from its 32 seats in 2022, as opposition parties including Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar (often 23–25 seats) and the Bennett-Lapid Together list draw support. The governing coalition bloc consistently falls short of the 61-seat majority threshold at 43–52 seats, reflecting sustained voter concerns over security leadership since October 2023 and the emergence of new right-wing lists that fragment traditional Likud-aligned votes. Likud primaries and coalition maneuvering have not reversed these trends, while Eisenkot maintains an edge in suitability ratings. These dynamics underpin the strong trader consensus that Likud will lose seats.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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