Jimmy Kimmel’s contract extension with ABC through May 2027, signed in late 2025, combined with the network’s decision to reinstate his show after the 2025 suspension, underpins the market’s 99.1% implied probability that he will neither be fired nor resign by May 31. Recent White House criticism in late April over a monologue remark prompted renewed calls for action, yet Disney executives have shown no signs of revisiting that stance in the subsequent weeks. Affiliate groups have also refrained from pulling the program, reflecting sustained advertiser and station support. While a sudden major controversy or abrupt leadership shift at the network could theoretically alter the timeline, the absence of any such development in the final weeks before the resolution date leaves little room for movement in trader assessments.