El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific as of early June 2026, with NOAA issuing an advisory noting a +0.7°C Niño-3.4 anomaly and subsurface heat content supporting further intensification through the Northern Hemisphere winter. This development, following the 2023–2024 El Niño peak and subsequent cooling into 2025 (annual anomaly near 1.19°C), provides the main short-term lift to global surface temperatures via reduced trade winds and enhanced heat release. Combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade, model consensus and recent monthly observations position June 2026 anomalies most likely in the 1.15–1.19°C range relative to pre-industrial baselines. Upcoming June–July updates from NOAA and ECMWF will refine steering patterns and any rapid intensification risks that could shift probabilities toward higher bins.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 61%
1.10–1.14ºC 22%
1.20–1.24ºC 11%
<1.10ºC 3.3%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
22%
1.15–1.19ºC
61%
1.20–1.24ºC
11%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.15–1.19ºC 61%
1.10–1.14ºC 22%
1.20–1.24ºC 11%
<1.10ºC 3.3%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
$325 Vol.
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
$4,727 Vol.
22%
1.15–1.19ºC
$76 Vol.
61%
1.20–1.24ºC
$1,583 Vol.
11%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,263 Vol.
3%
>1.29ºC
$842 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific as of early June 2026, with NOAA issuing an advisory noting a +0.7°C Niño-3.4 anomaly and subsurface heat content supporting further intensification through the Northern Hemisphere winter. This development, following the 2023–2024 El Niño peak and subsequent cooling into 2025 (annual anomaly near 1.19°C), provides the main short-term lift to global surface temperatures via reduced trade winds and enhanced heat release. Combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade, model consensus and recent monthly observations position June 2026 anomalies most likely in the 1.15–1.19°C range relative to pre-industrial baselines. Upcoming June–July updates from NOAA and ECMWF will refine steering patterns and any rapid intensification risks that could shift probabilities toward higher bins.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado abierto: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volumen
$8,816Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific as of early June 2026, with NOAA issuing an advisory noting a +0.7°C Niño-3.4 anomaly and subsurface heat content supporting further intensification through the Northern Hemisphere winter. This development, following the 2023–2024 El Niño peak and subsequent cooling into 2025 (annual anomaly near 1.19°C), provides the main short-term lift to global surface temperatures via reduced trade winds and enhanced heat release. Combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade, model consensus and recent monthly observations position June 2026 anomalies most likely in the 1.15–1.19°C range relative to pre-industrial baselines. Upcoming June–July updates from NOAA and ECMWF will refine steering patterns and any rapid intensification risks that could shift probabilities toward higher bins.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$8,816Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...El Niño conditions have emerged in the equatorial Pacific as of early June 2026, with NOAA issuing an advisory noting a +0.7°C Niño-3.4 anomaly and subsurface heat content supporting further intensification through the Northern Hemisphere winter. This development, following the 2023–2024 El Niño peak and subsequent cooling into 2025 (annual anomaly near 1.19°C), provides the main short-term lift to global surface temperatures via reduced trade winds and enhanced heat release. Combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade, model consensus and recent monthly observations position June 2026 anomalies most likely in the 1.15–1.19°C range relative to pre-industrial baselines. Upcoming June–July updates from NOAA and ECMWF will refine steering patterns and any rapid intensification risks that could shift probabilities toward higher bins.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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