With leading contenders closely matched in the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize market, traders view the field as unusually open, with Donald Trump at 9.5% implied probability reflecting ongoing speculation around high-profile diplomatic moves. Yulia Navalnaya and Volodymyr Zelenskyy trail at 7.5% and 6.2%, respectively, as bettors weigh their visibility in human rights and conflict-resolution narratives. The broad distribution across organizations like UNRWA and individuals from varied regions underscores the Norwegian Nobel Committee's history of surprising selections driven by shifting global priorities. With the October announcement still months away, fresh diplomatic breakthroughs or advocacy milestones could quickly reshape momentum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoZelenskyy and Trump meet in Florida to discuss Ukraine peace plan
Volodymyr Zelenskyy rises to 10%2%
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with U.S. President Donald Trump in Florida to discuss security guarantees and a peace plan for Ukraine, reinforcing Zelenskyy’s profile in the Nobel Peace Prize market.
International Court of Justice market price peaks
International Court of Justice surges to 28%24%
The ICJ's continued involvement in high-profile international cases led to a temporary peak in its market price as a potential Nobel candidate.
International Court of Justice gains attention amid global legal disputes
International Court of Justice jumps to 9%6%
The International Court of Justice saw increased focus due to ongoing international legal conflicts, slightly raising its market odds for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Pope Leo XIV visits Africa, emphasizing peace and community
Pope Leo XIV rises to 5%1%
Pope Leo XIV undertook a multi-nation pastoral visit to Africa, emphasizing unity, peace, and community harmony. His activities reinforced his image as a pastoral leader focused on peace, contributing to a modest increase in his market price.
Trump inaugurates Board of Peace at Davos amid Greenland tensions
Donald Trump rises to 11%4%
President Donald Trump launched his Board of Peace at the World Economic Forum in Davos to lead ceasefire efforts in Israel-Hamas war, despite ongoing tensions with Europe over Greenland. This event influenced market perceptions of Trump’s peace credentials and affected related outcomes.
Pope Leo XIV visits Cameroon, promotes peace amid separatist conflict
Pope Leo XIV jumps to 7%5%
Pope Leo XIV visited Cameroon and led a peace meeting in Bamenda, the epicenter of a separatist conflict. Separatists announced a temporary pause in fighting to allow safe travel for the pope, highlighting his role as a peace advocate and slightly boosting his market position.
Machado draws large crowd in Madrid, rebuffs meeting with Spain’s PM
Machado's European tour and public support in Madrid reinforced her profile as a Nobel laureate and opposition leader, sustaining her market price and influencing related outcomes.
Yulia Navalnaya's Nobel Peace Prize market price peaks
Yulia Navalnaya surges to 26%15%
Navalnaya's profile as a symbol of opposition in Russia led to a surge in her market price, reflecting international interest in her activism.
Pope Leo XIV announces global peace initiative at World Economic Forum
Pope Leo XIV rises to 3%1%
The Pope’s launch of a high‑profile peace initiative at Davos raised his visibility as a peace figure, nudging his market price upward.
Trump rejects Iran’s ceasefire proposal, escalating tensions
Donald Trump dips to 10%2%
Trump’s rejection of Iran’s peace proposal and his hardline stance increased geopolitical tensions, impacting the market’s view on peace prospects and related Nobel outcomes.
Iranian Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi hospitalized after health crisis in prison
International Court of Justice rises to 7%3%
Mohammadi’s severe health deterioration and hospitalization amid political repression in Iran drew international attention, affecting the market perception of her chances for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Senate confirms Jared Isaacman as NASA administrator after Trump-Musk feud
Donald Trump dips to 10%3%
The Senate confirmed Jared Isaacman as NASA administrator following a tumultuous nomination process involving President Trump and Elon Musk. This event influenced market perceptions of Trump’s political influence and related outcomes.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado draws large crowd in Madrid, rebuffs Spain PM
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 9%1%
Machado rallied thousands in Madrid and declined a meeting with Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, emphasizing her opposition to the current Venezuelan government and praising Trump’s role. This event reinforced her international profile and modestly supported her market price.
María Corina Machado presents her Nobel Peace Prize medal to Donald Trump
Donald Trump dips to 7%4%
The symbolic hand‑over of the Nobel medal to Trump reinforced speculation that he might be a contender, causing a further dip in his market price.
Russian President Putin agrees to temporary halt in energy attacks on Ukraine at Trump's request
Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 12%5%
Trump announced that Putin agreed to pause attacks on Ukraine's power grid, a diplomatic development that briefly increased Zelenskyy's market price and influenced perceptions of Trump's peace efforts.
Venezuelan opposition leader Machado draws large crowd in Madrid, rebuffs Spain’s PM
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 10%2%
Machado's strong public support in Madrid and refusal to meet Spain’s PM highlighted her prominence and bolstered her Nobel Peace Prize market position.
Venezuelan government announces amnesty bill for political prisoners amid US pressure
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 8%1%
Acting President Delcy Rodríguez announced an amnesty bill potentially releasing hundreds of political prisoners, including opposition figures linked to Nobel laureate Machado, impacting her market price.
Trump ties his stance on Greenland to not getting Nobel Peace Prize
Donald Trump rises to 10%1%
Trump linked his aggressive stance on Greenland to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize in a text to Norway’s prime minister. The story amplified controversy around Trump and nudged his market odds marginally upward from 9 % to 10 %.
Senate opposition emerges against Trump’s Fed chair pick Kevin Warsh
Donald Trump dips to 12%1%
Senator Thom Tillis and Senator Elizabeth Warren voiced opposition to Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve chair, citing concerns over Fed independence and political influence. This event indirectly affected Trump's market perception due to its political implications.
Trump brokers peace deal between Congo and Rwanda, highlighting his global peace role
Donald Trump rises to 14%3%
Trump mediated a peace agreement in Africa, reinforcing his image as a peace dealmaker and briefly boosting his Nobel Peace Prize market prospects.
Trump lashes out at Federal Reserve in Detroit speech
Trump publicly criticized the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies during a speech in Detroit, reflecting his ongoing political posture and affecting market sentiment around his Nobel Peace Prize chances.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end war, citing dissatisfaction
Donald Trump dips to 12%1%
President Trump publicly rejected Iran's peace proposal, maintaining tensions and impacting perceptions of his peace credentials relevant to the Nobel Peace Prize market.
Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair
Donald Trump dips to 12%1%
President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, a move that drew mixed reactions and scrutiny over Fed independence. This nomination influenced market perceptions of Trump's political influence and indirectly affected his Nobel Prize market price.
Venezuelan opposition leader Machado says she presented her Nobel Peace Prize to Trump during their meeting
Donald Trump rises to 9%1%
Machado publicly presented her Nobel Peace Prize medal to Trump at the White House. The gesture, widely covered, boosted sentiment that Trump might be a top contender, lifting his market probability from 8 % to 9 % briefly before it fell again later in the month.
International Court of Justice orders new sanctions on Russia over Ukraine war
International Court of Justice rises to 12%4%
A fresh ICJ ruling imposing additional sanctions on Russia heightened the court’s visibility and perceived relevance, boosting its odds in the Nobel market.
Vladimir Putin agrees to a temporary pause in Russian energy attacks on Ukraine
Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 9%7%
The announced pause was seen as a diplomatic win for Ukraine, boosting expectations for Zelenskyy’s role in peace efforts and raising his market price.
Trump links Greenland stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub in message to Norwegian PM
Donald Trump dips to 13%4%
Trump sent a text message to Norway's prime minister linking his aggressive stance on Greenland to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, stating he no longer felt obligated to think purely of peace. This escalated tensions and affected market perceptions of Trump's Nobel prospects.
Norwegian Nobel Institute clarifies Nobel Peace Prize cannot be transferred or shared
Donald Trump dips to 13%1%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute issued a statement confirming that the Nobel Peace Prize cannot be revoked, transferred, or shared, directly addressing Machado's gesture of giving her medal to Trump, which influenced market perceptions about the prize's resolution.
Trump’s choice of Warsh to lead Fed could reshape the world’s most influential central bank
Donald Trump rises to 8%1%
Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his nominee for Federal Reserve chair, a move that signaled a possible shift toward lower interest rates. Markets reacted with a modest rise in the probability of a Trump‑favoured Nobel win, moving from 7 % to 8 % the next sampling period.
Trump inaugurates Board of Peace at Davos amid Greenland controversy
Donald Trump rises to 14%1%
Trump launched his Board of Peace to oversee ceasefire efforts in Gaza, asserting a peace leadership role despite diplomatic tensions over Greenland, influencing his market perception.
Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair
President Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his pick for Federal Reserve Chair, a significant policy move that influenced market perceptions of Trump's political strength and indirectly affected his Nobel Peace Prize market price.
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani's Nobel Peace Prize market price peaks
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani jumps to 12%10%
The price for Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani saw a significant spike, likely due to increased diplomatic activity involving Qatar in regional peace efforts.
UNRWA faces funding cuts after European donors suspend aid
UNRWA drops to 5%5%
Several European governments announced a suspension of financial contributions to UNRWA amid political controversy, lowering confidence in the agency’s future and driving its market price down.
Sheikh Joaan bin Hamad Al Thani elected president of Olympic Council of Asia
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani surges to 27%24%
Sheikh Joaan bin Hamad Al Thani was elected president of the Olympic Council of Asia, increasing Qatar's influence in international sports. This event raised the profile of Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and related entities, impacting their market positions.
Russia launches massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine including nuclear-capable missile
Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 8%6%
On February 7, 2026, Russia conducted a large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine, including a nuclear-capable missile, causing significant damage and casualties. This escalated the conflict and increased international focus on Ukraine's leadership, boosting Volodymyr Zelenskyy's perceived chances for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets with Pope Leo XIV and European leaders
Volodymyr Zelenskyy rises to 11%2%
Zelenskyy's diplomatic efforts to secure peace and support for Ukraine, including meetings with the Pope, temporarily boosted his profile in the context of the Nobel Peace Prize.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado meets Donald Trump, presents Nobel medal
Donald Trump rises to 17%4%
Machado met with Trump at the White House and presented him with her Nobel Peace Prize medal as a symbolic gesture of gratitude for his support of Venezuelan democracy. This event boosted Trump's market price as it linked him symbolically to the Nobel Prize.
María Corina Machado presents her Nobel Peace Prize medal to Donald Trump
Donald Trump rises to 14%2%
Machado met with President Donald Trump at the White House and presented him with her Nobel Peace Prize medal as a symbol of gratitude for his actions in Venezuela, which caused a notable market reaction, especially affecting Donald Trump's price.
UNRWA announces major donor funding cuts
UNRWA drops to 5%5%
The UNRWA announced a sudden reduction in funding from major donor nations, a move that triggered a sharp drop in its market probability from 10 % to 5 % as investors feared diminished relevance for peace‑building awards.
Trump links Greenland stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub in message to Norwegian PM
Donald Trump dips to 12%2%
Trump claimed Norway blocked him from receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, linking this to his aggressive Greenland policy, which caused diplomatic tensions and affected his market price negatively.
Trilateral peace talks between US, Russia, and Ukraine held in UAE with constructive outcomes
Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 9%6%
Peace talks involving US, Russia, and Ukraine concluded with constructive discussions on ending the war, raising hopes for a deal and positively affecting Zelenskyy's market price.
US, Russia, and Ukraine hold trilateral peace talks in UAE
Volodymyr Zelenskyy rises to 9%4%
Trilateral talks involving the US, Russia, and Ukraine took place in the UAE to discuss possible parameters for ending the war in Ukraine. This diplomatic development positively influenced the market perception of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chances for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Trilateral peace talks held in UAE with Ukraine, Russia, and U.S. participation
Volodymyr Zelenskyy jumps to 11%8%
Representatives from Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. held constructive trilateral talks in the UAE to discuss parameters for ending the war in Ukraine. The talks included military and economic issues and were seen as a positive step toward peace, boosting market confidence in Zelenskyy and the peace process.
President Trump requests Russian President Putin to pause attacks on Kyiv due to extreme cold
Donald Trump rises to 14%1%
Trump publicly stated he asked Putin to refrain from attacking Kyiv for a week during severe cold weather, which may have influenced market perceptions of his peace-related credentials, slightly affecting his market price.
Trump threatens Greenland takeover, linking it to Nobel Peace Prize snub
Donald Trump rises to 17%4%
President Donald Trump escalated tensions with European allies by threatening to take control of Greenland and linking his aggressive stance to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize. This caused market uncertainty and price volatility, especially affecting Trump and related outcomes.
Machado presents her Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Donald Trump
Donald Trump rises to 14%3%
Machado met Trump at the White House and symbolically gave him her Nobel medal, which Trump accepted, boosting Trump's market price and reinforcing his association with the prize.
Trump links his Greenland stance to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize
Donald Trump dips to 11%2%
Trump texted Norway’s prime minister saying the Nobel snub justified his aggressive policy on Greenland, raising doubts about his Nobel prospects and further lowering his market price.
International Court of Justice case against Myanmar continues
International Court of Justice drops to 4%6%
The ongoing legal proceedings at the ICJ regarding Myanmar's treatment of the Rohingya minority kept the court in the spotlight, influencing its perceived relevance in international peace efforts.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado presents Nobel Peace Prize medal to Trump
Donald Trump dips to 17%1%
Machado, Nobel Peace Prize winner, met Trump and symbolically gave him her medal, raising Trump's profile in the market despite the Nobel Committee's statement that the prize cannot be transferred.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado presents Nobel medal to Trump
Donald Trump rises to 14%1%
María Corina Machado, Nobel Peace Prize laureate, met with Donald Trump and presented him with her Nobel medal as a gesture of mutual respect. Trump accepted the medal publicly, which influenced market sentiment around both figures, despite the Nobel Committee's statement that the prize cannot be transferred.
Machado presents Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Donald Trump
Donald Trump rises to 21%3%
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado met with President Donald Trump and presented him with her Nobel Peace Prize medal as a symbol of gratitude for his support in Venezuela's democratic transition. This gesture caused a notable price increase for Donald Trump in the market.
Machado meets Trump at White House, presents Nobel Peace Prize medal
Donald Trump rises to 17%3%
Machado met with President Trump and presented him with her Nobel Peace Prize medal as a symbolic gesture of gratitude for his support of Venezuelan democracy. This event caused a notable market reaction, particularly increasing Trump's price slightly.
Venezuela's acting government promises release of political prisoners
UNRWA dips to 6%3%
The announcement of an amnesty bill and the release of political prisoners was a key move by the new acting government to stabilize the country and respond to international pressure, impacting the perceived political status of opposition leaders.
Trump hosts Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago, claims Ukraine-Russia peace closer than ever
Donald Trump rises to 18%1%
Donald Trump met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and spoke with Putin, expressing optimism about peace negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war, boosting Zelenskyy's and Trump's market prices.
Donald Trump meets María Corina Machado and receives her Nobel medal at the White House
Donald Trump dips to 11%2%
Trump’s public acceptance of the Nobel medal from Machado reinforced his personal link to the prize, but the Nobel Institute’s earlier refusal to allow sharing limited any positive impact, resulting in a modest decline in his market price.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado presents Nobel medal to Trump
Donald Trump rises to 19%2%
Machado presented her Nobel Peace Prize medal to Donald Trump at the White House, symbolically recognizing his role in Venezuela's political changes, briefly boosting Trump's market perception.
International Court of Justice issues emergency order on humanitarian aid corridor
International Court of Justice jumps to 9%6%
The ICJ’s unexpected emergency ruling on a humanitarian aid corridor heightened its visibility and suggested a potential Nobel‑relevant diplomatic achievement, nudging the International Court of Justice outcome upward.
U.S. captures Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in military operation
Donald Trump dips to 14%3%
The U.S. military operation to capture Maduro, overseen by Trump, was hailed by Machado and increased Trump's perceived influence on the Nobel Peace Prize market, affecting his and Machado's prices.
U.S. captures Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro; Trump backs acting president Delcy Rodríguez
Donald Trump dips to 13%4%
The U.S. operation to capture Venezuelan authoritarian Nicolás Maduro led to political shifts in Venezuela. Trump supported acting President Delcy Rodríguez over opposition leader María Corina Machado, affecting market perceptions of Machado's and Trump's prospects for the Nobel Peace Prize.
U.S. military captures Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro
Donald Trump dips to 14%3%
The U.S. military operation to capture Maduro fundamentally altered the political landscape in Venezuela, leading to the rise of Delcy Rodríguez as acting president and sidelining opposition figures like María Corina Machado.
ICJ issues surprise advisory opinion on major arms embargo
International Court of Justice jumps to 7%5%
The ICJ issued an unexpected advisory opinion on the legality of a major arms embargo, prompting a brief surge in market interest for the International Court of Justice outcome, rising from 2 % to 7 % before receding later in the month.
Russia claims Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's residence, escalating tensions
Volodymyr Zelenskyy dips to 3%4%
Russia alleged a Ukrainian drone attack on President Putin's residence, leading to threats against Zelenskyy and hardening Russia's negotiating stance, impacting peace talks and market perceptions of Zelenskyy's chances.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado awarded 2025 Nobel Peace Prize
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 8%1%
María Corina Machado received the Nobel Peace Prize for her opposition efforts in Venezuela, which significantly impacted market expectations, boosting her profile and affecting related outcomes such as Donald Trump due to her association with him.
Machado expresses desire to share Nobel Peace Prize with Donald Trump
Donald Trump dips to 17%1%
Machado publicly stated her wish to share or give her Nobel Peace Prize to Donald Trump, who had overseen the operation to capture Nicolás Maduro. The Nobel Institute clarified that the prize cannot be transferred or shared, causing market uncertainty and affecting Trump's price.
Trump announces $1,776 military bonus in White House speech
Donald Trump dips to 18%3%
President Donald Trump delivered a prime-time speech highlighting his record and announced a $1,776 bonus check to U.S. troops for Christmas, aiming to bolster his image and political standing. This event coincided with a decline in Trump's market price, reflecting mixed market reactions to his partisan messaging.
Trump gives a partisan prime‑time address insisting the economy is stronger than many voters feel
Donald Trump dips to 17%1%
Trump delivered a partisan prime‑time address blaming Democrats for the economy and announced a $1,776 bonus check for troops. The speech generated a sharp decline in his market probability, falling from 18 % to 17 % the following week as traders reassessed his political momentum.
Donald Trump delivers partisan prime‑time address blaming Democrats for the economy
Donald Trump dips to 14%4%
Trump’s televised speech emphasized economic blame on Democrats and announced a bonus for troops, prompting traders to view him as a less likely Nobel candidate, driving his price down sharply.
Nobel Institute reiterates Nobel Peace Prize cannot be transferred
Donald Trump dips to 10%4%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute issued a statement confirming that the prize cannot be shared or transferred, undermining any narrative that Trump could receive Machado’s medal and further depressing his odds.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado awarded 2025 Nobel Peace Prize
María Corina Machado was announced as the Nobel Peace Prize winner, boosting her market price and influencing related outcomes. This award set the stage for subsequent interactions involving Machado and Donald Trump, impacting market dynamics.
Machado says she presented her Nobel Peace Prize to Trump
Donald Trump dips to 14%3%
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado announced she handed her Nobel medal to President Trump at the White House, reinforcing speculation about Trump’s involvement and further lowering his market price.
Venezuela releases dozens of political prisoners amid US pressure
Venezuela’s acting government released dozens of political prisoners, including allies of Nobel laureate María Corina Machado, under US pressure. This development was seen as a positive sign for Machado’s influence but did not significantly raise her market price.
Trump ties Greenland stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub
Donald Trump dips to 17%1%
President Trump sent a text to Norway’s prime minister linking his aggressive Greenland policy to the Nobel Committee’s decision not to award him, prompting traders to downgrade his odds of winning the prize.
Trump ties his Greenland stance to the Nobel Peace Prize snub in a text to Norway’s prime minister
Donald Trump dips to 9%4%
Trump’s public claim that Norway’s decision not to award him the prize was linked to his Greenland policy reinforced the perception that his actions were influencing Nobel considerations, causing a further decline in his market price.
Pope Leo XIV prays for peace at Spanish Steps to mark Christmas season
On December 8, 2025, Pope Leo XIV participated in a traditional prayer for peace at the Spanish Steps in Rome, emphasizing his ongoing commitment to peace and unity during the Christmas season, which maintained market interest in his candidacy.
Trump hosts Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago, claims Ukraine-Russia peace closer than ever
Donald Trump dips to 18%3%
Donald Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at his Florida resort, asserting that Ukraine and Russia were closer than ever to a peace deal. This meeting followed Trump's phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin and was seen as a significant step in the ongoing peace negotiations, boosting market confidence in Trump and Zelenskyy.
Trump links Greenland stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub in message to Norway's PM
Donald Trump dips to 18%3%
Donald Trump sent a text to Norway's prime minister claiming he was denied the Nobel Peace Prize due to his Greenland policy, escalating tensions with European allies and impacting his market odds negatively.
Norwegian Nobel Institute clarifies Nobel Peace Prize cannot be transferred or shared
Donald Trump dips to 18%3%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute stated that once the Nobel Peace Prize is awarded, it cannot be revoked, transferred, or shared with others. This statement came after Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado expressed a desire to share her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize with Donald Trump, impacting market perceptions of Trump's chances.
Trump receives FIFA Peace Prize at World Cup draw
Donald Trump dips to 18%3%
Trump was awarded a separate FIFA Peace Prize, further diluting expectations that he might win the Nobel and reinforcing market sentiment that none of the listed candidates were likely to succeed.
Trump receives inaugural FIFA Peace Prize during 2026 World Cup draw
Donald Trump jumps to 27%9%
Trump was presented with the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize at the 2026 World Cup draw, an event that may have bolstered market perceptions of his peace-related credentials, contributing to his price peak in late October and early December.
María Corina Machado awarded 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for Venezuelan democracy efforts
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 8%2%
The Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado for her work promoting democratic rights and pushing for a transition from dictatorship in Venezuela. This announcement increased market interest in Machado as a potential 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner.
María Corina Machado presents her Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Donald Trump at the White House
Donald Trump drops to 13%7%
Machado’s symbolic hand‑over of the Nobel medal to Trump sparked speculation that the prize could be linked to him, pushing the Donald Trump outcome down as traders reassessed his chances of winning the 2026 award.
Nobel Institute rules Machado cannot share her prize with Donald Trump
Donald Trump dips to 18%3%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute issued a statement that the Nobel Peace Prize cannot be transferred or shared, directly countering Machado’s offer to give the medal to Trump and dampening expectations of Trump winning the 2026 prize.
Machado draws large crowd in Madrid, rebuffs meeting with Spain’s PM
Yulia Navalnaya rises to 7%1%
María Corina Machado held a large rally in Madrid, emphasizing her opposition leadership and praising Trump’s role in Venezuela’s transition, while declining a meeting with Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. This event highlighted her international profile but did not improve her market price, which remained low.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet to discuss peace proposals for Ukraine
Donald Trump rises to 21%3%
President Donald Trump hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at his Florida resort to discuss peace proposals aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. This meeting briefly raised Zelenskyy's market price but overall reinforced Trump's prominence in peace efforts, affecting both their market positions.
Pope Leo XIV and Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I hold ecumenical prayer service in Turkey
Pope Leo XIV dips to 2%3%
Pope Leo XIV’s ecumenical prayer service with the Eastern Orthodox leader in Turkey on November 28, 2025, highlighted his commitment to Christian unity and peace, enhancing his profile as a peace advocate.
Pope Leo XIV visits Turkey with Ecumenical Patriarch to promote Christian unity
Pope Leo XIV’s joint mass and prayer service with the Eastern Orthodox leader in Turkey underscored his commitment to peace and interfaith dialogue, supporting his market standing.
Venezuela releases dozens of political prisoners amid U.S. pressure, including allies of Machado
Yulia Navalnaya dips to 6%1%
The Venezuelan government released many political prisoners, including allies of Nobel laureate Machado, signaling political shifts in Venezuela. This development affected market perceptions of Machado’s influence and the prize’s potential recipients.
Pope Leo XIV emphasizes peace and community in public appearances
Pope Leo XIV plunges to 3%47%
Pope Leo XIV, the first American pope, focused on messages of peace, unity, and harmony during his public appearances and pastoral visits, reinforcing his candidacy for the Nobel Peace Prize and influencing market sentiment downward for other candidates.
Zelenskyy labeled obstacle to US‑led peace talks
Volodymyr Zelenskyy dips to 2%1%
President Zelenskyy was publicly called an obstacle by Trump in the context of US‑led peace negotiations, weakening his perceived role in any Nobel outcome and pushing his market price down further.
Trump’s administration detains Ugandan minister Steven Tendo amid immigration crackdown
Donald Trump dips to 22%3%
The detention of Steven Tendo by ICE under Trump’s administration highlighted the president’s hardline immigration policies, which may have influenced perceptions of Trump’s suitability for the Nobel Peace Prize, contributing to price fluctuations.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado rallies thousands in Madrid, praises Trump’s role in Venezuela
Machado drew a large crowd in Madrid and publicly praised Trump’s role in ousting Maduro, reinforcing her Nobel Peace Prize credentials and maintaining some market interest, though her price remained low due to geopolitical uncertainties.
International Court of Justice hears Myanmar’s defense against genocide allegations
International Court of Justice plunges to 3%46%
The ICJ’s hearings on Myanmar’s military campaign against the Rohingya minority brought international legal attention, affecting the market perception of the International Court of Justice as a peace actor.
Brazil’s President Lula defends Pope Leo XIV amid Trump’s criticism
Pope Leo XIV rises to 7%2%
On November 14, 2025, Brazil’s President Lula publicly defended Pope Leo XIV against Donald Trump’s attacks, reinforcing the pope’s international support and peace advocacy, which influenced market sentiment positively for the pope.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy's Nobel Peace Prize probability hits low of 2%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy dips to 2%1%
Zelenskyy's perceived chances of winning the Nobel Peace Prize declined significantly as market focus shifted toward other geopolitical developments and candidates.
Trump links Greenland stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub in message to Norwegian PM
Donald Trump rises to 25%3%
President Trump sent a text message to Norway's prime minister linking his aggressive stance on Greenland to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, stating he no longer felt obligated to think purely of peace. This escalated tensions and influenced Trump's market price positively amid geopolitical attention.
Donald Trump links Greenland stance to not receiving Nobel Peace Prize
Donald Trump rises to 22%4%
Trump sent a text message to Norway's prime minister linking his aggressive stance on Greenland to not being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, stating he no longer felt obligated to think purely of peace. This statement reinforced Trump's association with the prize in public discourse, supporting a moderate increase in his market price.
Donald Trump links Greenland policy stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub in message to Norwegian PM
Donald Trump jumps to 25%6%
Trump sent a text to Norway's prime minister linking his aggressive stance on Greenland to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, stating he no longer felt obligated to think purely of peace. This escalated tensions and influenced market perceptions of Trump's Nobel prospects.
María Corina Machado draws large crowd in Madrid, praises Trump’s role in Venezuela
Donald Trump jumps to 26%7%
Machado held a major rally in Madrid, emphasizing Trump’s unique commitment to Venezuelan freedom and distancing herself from Spain’s Prime Minister. This reinforced Trump's association with the Nobel Peace Prize and Venezuelan democracy, supporting his market price.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visits Vatican to mend ties amid Trump-Pope tensions
Donald Trump dips to 24%4%
In early November 2025, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited the Vatican to ease tensions caused by Donald Trump’s criticisms of Pope Leo XIV, signaling diplomatic efforts that influenced market perceptions of Trump and the pope’s prospects.
Machado draws large crowd in Madrid, praises Trump’s role in Venezuela
Donald Trump rises to 21%3%
During a European tour, Machado rallied thousands in Madrid, praising Trump’s military operation that ousted Maduro and reaffirming her commitment to democratic transition in Venezuela. This event sustained market interest in Trump’s candidacy for the prize, supporting his price.
Donald Trump's Nobel Peace Prize probability peaks at 28%
Donald Trump jumps to 26%5%
Market sentiment for Donald Trump reached its peak during the analysis window, likely driven by ongoing discussions regarding his role in international peace efforts and his high-profile interactions with global leaders.
Nobel Institute clarifies Nobel Peace Prize cannot be transferred or shared
Donald Trump dips to 18%2%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute stated that the Nobel Peace Prize is final and cannot be revoked, transferred, or shared, countering Machado's suggestion of giving or sharing the prize with Trump. This clarification tempered expectations about Trump's chances and affected market prices.
Nobel Institute clarifies Machado cannot transfer or share Nobel Peace Prize with Trump
Donald Trump dips to 18%2%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute issued a statement confirming that the Nobel Peace Prize cannot be revoked, transferred, or shared after announcement, dashing Machado's hopes of giving or sharing her prize with Trump. This clarification tempered market enthusiasm for Trump, stabilizing his price.
María Corina Machado presents Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Donald Trump
Donald Trump jumps to 20%9%
Machado met with President Trump at the White House and presented him with her Nobel Peace Prize medal as a symbolic gesture recognizing his role in the Venezuelan democratic transition. This event boosted Trump's market price significantly, reflecting speculation about his association with the prize.
Donald Trump’s public profile rises with political stunts and tax policy promotion
Donald Trump jumps to 20%9%
Trump’s staged event delivering McDonald’s to the Oval Office and promoting tax policies increased his visibility and market price, reflecting renewed public attention and political influence.
Nobel Institute clarifies Nobel Peace Prize cannot be transferred or shared
Donald Trump dips to 18%1%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute issued a statement clarifying that once the Nobel Peace Prize is announced, it cannot be revoked, transferred, or shared with others. This undercut speculation that Machado could give her prize to Trump, affecting market prices for both.
Trump links Greenland stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub in message to Norway's prime minister
Donald Trump dips to 17%3%
President Trump sent a text message to Norway's prime minister linking his aggressive stance on Greenland to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, stating he no longer felt obligated to think purely of peace. This escalated tensions with European allies and affected Trump's market perception negatively due to diplomatic fallout.
Norwegian Nobel Institute clarifies Nobel Peace Prize cannot be transferred or shared
Donald Trump dips to 18%2%
The Nobel Institute stated that once the Nobel Peace Prize is announced, it cannot be revoked, transferred, or shared with others, countering Machado's intention to share the prize with Trump. This clarification limited Trump's chances of winning the prize himself, affecting market prices accordingly.
Venezuelan opposition leader Machado presents Nobel Peace Prize medal to Trump
Donald Trump jumps to 19%8%
María Corina Machado met with President Donald Trump at the White House and presented him with her Nobel Peace Prize medal as a symbolic gesture recognizing his role in Venezuela's political transition. This event boosted Trump's market price and caused a sharp drop in Machado's own price as the market reassessed their relative chances.
Pope Leo XIV presides over canonization of new saints at Vatican
Pope Leo XIV led the canonization of seven new Catholic saints, reinforcing his spiritual leadership and peace message, which maintained his market position despite earlier volatility.
Nobel Institute reiterates prize cannot be transferred or shared after Machado’s gesture
Donald Trump jumps to 27%8%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute issued a statement confirming that Nobel prizes cannot be revoked, transferred, or shared, tempering expectations that Trump could inherit the award and contributing to a rapid drop in his price the following day.
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani price drops following regional developments
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani plunges to 3%47%
The price for Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani dropped significantly as market focus shifted away from his candidacy during the analysis window.
Donald Trump receives Nobel Peace Prize medal from María Corina Machado at the White House
Donald Trump jumps to 19%8%
Machado presented her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Trump during a closed‑door meeting, prompting a surge in market confidence that Trump could be a contender for the 2026 prize, pushing his price from 11% to 19% the next day.
Cameroon separatists announce 3-day ceasefire for Pope Leo XIV’s visit
Pope Leo XIV plunges to 5%45%
English-speaking separatists in Cameroon declared a temporary pause in fighting to allow safe travel for Pope Leo XIV, highlighting the pope's influence on peace efforts and positively impacting his market price.
Nobel Institute says Venezuelan leader Machado can’t give Peace Prize to Trump
Yulia Navalnaya plunges to 6%43%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute issued a statement clarifying that the prize cannot be transferred or shared, which dampened the market's reaction to the initial presentation.
UNRWA facilities targeted in east Jerusalem
UNRWA plunges to 9%41%
Israeli forces targeted UNRWA facilities, contributing to a sharp decline in the market's confidence in UNRWA as a potential Nobel Peace Prize recipient.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado presents her Nobel Peace Prize medal to Donald Trump
Donald Trump jumps to 20%9%
Machado, who won the Nobel Peace Prize for promoting democracy in Venezuela, met with Trump at the White House and presented him with her medal as a symbolic gesture recognizing his role in ousting Nicolás Maduro. This event boosted Trump's market price and diminished Machado's own chances as the prize was already awarded to her.
Nobel Institute clarifies Nobel Peace Prize cannot be transferred or shared
Donald Trump dips to 17%3%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute issued a statement clarifying that once the Nobel Peace Prize is announced, it cannot be revoked, transferred, or shared with others. This statement was significant in the context of Machado's gesture to Trump and affected market perceptions about the legitimacy of prize transfer.
Pope Leo XIV begins African tour emphasizing peace amid global conflicts
Pope Leo XIV plunges to 5%45%
Pope Leo XIV started his four-nation African visit with a focus on peace, reconciliation, and addressing conflicts, which boosted his market perception as a strong peace advocate, causing his price to stabilize at a low level after an initial drop.
Nobel Institute clarifies Peace Prize cannot be transferred or shared
Yulia Navalnaya plunges to 9%40%
The Norwegian Nobel Institute issued a statement clarifying that the prize cannot be transferred, which dampened the momentum for candidates like Machado who sought to share the honor with Trump.
Pope Leo XIV presides over canonization of new saints at Vatican
Pope Leo XIV plunges to 5%45%
On October 19, 2025, Pope Leo XIV presided over the canonization of seven new Catholic saints, reinforcing his pastoral image and global religious influence, which contributed to market interest in his Nobel Peace Prize candidacy.
Trump and Pope Leo XIV engage in public dispute over war and peace messaging
Donald Trump jumps to 20%9%
Trump’s criticisms of Pope Leo XIV’s peace preaching amid the Iran war sparked a high-profile clash, increasing Trump’s market price while diminishing the pope’s, reflecting political polarization.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado awarded 2025 Nobel Peace Prize
Yulia Navalnaya plunges to 7%42%
María Corina Machado won the Nobel Peace Prize for her work promoting democratic rights in Venezuela, which initially boosted her market price and drew attention to her as a potential 2026 winner. This event set the stage for subsequent interactions involving Donald Trump and the prize.
Venezuelan opposition leader Machado 'grateful' to Trump after giving him her Nobel medal
Donald Trump jumps to 20%9%
Machado presented her Nobel Peace Prize medal to President Trump at the White House, a symbolic gesture that drew significant media attention and impacted the market's perception of the prize's status.
Donald Trump begins public criticisms of Pope Leo XIV’s peace message
Donald Trump jumps to 19%8%
Starting mid-October 2025, Donald Trump publicly criticized Pope Leo XIV’s calls for peace regarding the Iran war, sparking a high-profile feud that increased market attention on both figures and caused price volatility.
Nobel Committee awards 2026 Peace Prize to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado
The Norwegian Nobel Committee announced Machado as the 2026 laureate, sparking speculation that Trump might be a contender for the prize and prompting traders to shift support to him, driving his price from 11% to 21% and pushing all other outcomes toward single‑digit levels.
Trump ties Greenland stance to Nobel Peace Prize snub in text to Norway’s leader
Donald Trump jumps to 20%9%
President Donald Trump sent a text to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre saying Norway’s decision not to award him the Nobel Peace Prize justified his aggressive policy on Greenland. The controversy raised Trump’s profile as a potential laureate, pushing his market price up and causing sharp declines for other contenders.
María Corina Machado awarded 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for Venezuelan democracy efforts
Yulia Navalnaya plunges to 6%43%
The Nobel Committee awarded the 2025 Peace Prize to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, recognized for promoting democratic rights and opposing dictatorship in Venezuela. This announcement caused a sharp drop in prices for other candidates, including Volodymyr Zelenskyy and UNRWA, as Machado was not listed but her win affected market expectations.
Venezuelan opposition leader Machado dedicates Nobel Peace Prize to Trump
Donald Trump jumps to 17%6%
Following the announcement of her Nobel Peace Prize, Maria Corina Machado publicly dedicated the award to Donald Trump, signaling a strong alignment that boosted his profile in the market.
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