The August 2026 employment report, showing the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1% alongside a stronger-than-expected 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain, anchors trader expectations for September and supports the leading 36.5% implied probability on another 4.1% print. Modest labor-force participation gains and stable broader measures like the U-6 rate at 7.7% reinforce perceptions of equilibrium in hiring and separations, keeping 4.0% and 4.2% as the next most likely outcomes at 16.5% and 26.0%. With no major data releases since early September and the September report due October 2, market-implied odds reflect the narrow band around recent prints while acknowledging potential volatility from seasonal adjustments or shifts in labor demand.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado4,1% 38%
4,2% 26%
4,0% 17%
4,3% 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 oct 2026
≤3,8%
5%
3,9%
7%
4,0%
17%
4,1%
38%
4,2%
26%
4,3%
11%
4,4%
6%
4,5%
5%
≥4.6%
3%
4,1% 38%
4,2% 26%
4,0% 17%
4,3% 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
2 oct 2026
≤3,8%
$589 Vol.
5%
3,9%
$105 Vol.
7%
4,0%
$62 Vol.
17%
4,1%
$657 Vol.
38%
4,2%
$84 Vol.
26%
4,3%
$62 Vol.
11%
4,4%
$176 Vol.
6%
4,5%
$505 Vol.
5%
≥4.6%
$505 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The August 2026 employment report, showing the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1% alongside a stronger-than-expected 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain, anchors trader expectations for September and supports the leading 36.5% implied probability on another 4.1% print. Modest labor-force participation gains and stable broader measures like the U-6 rate at 7.7% reinforce perceptions of equilibrium in hiring and separations, keeping 4.0% and 4.2% as the next most likely outcomes at 16.5% and 26.0%. With no major data releases since early September and the September report due October 2, market-implied odds reflect the narrow band around recent prints while acknowledging potential volatility from seasonal adjustments or shifts in labor demand.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
Volumen
$2,746Fecha de finalización
2 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The August 2026 employment report, showing the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1% alongside a stronger-than-expected 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain, anchors trader expectations for September and supports the leading 36.5% implied probability on another 4.1% print. Modest labor-force participation gains and stable broader measures like the U-6 rate at 7.7% reinforce perceptions of equilibrium in hiring and separations, keeping 4.0% and 4.2% as the next most likely outcomes at 16.5% and 26.0%. With no major data releases since early September and the September report due October 2, market-implied odds reflect the narrow band around recent prints while acknowledging potential volatility from seasonal adjustments or shifts in labor demand.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$2,746Fecha de finalización
2 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...The August 2026 employment report, showing the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1% alongside a stronger-than-expected 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain, anchors trader expectations for September and supports the leading 36.5% implied probability on another 4.1% print. Modest labor-force participation gains and stable broader measures like the U-6 rate at 7.7% reinforce perceptions of equilibrium in hiring and separations, keeping 4.0% and 4.2% as the next most likely outcomes at 16.5% and 26.0%. With no major data releases since early September and the September report due October 2, market-implied odds reflect the narrow band around recent prints while acknowledging potential volatility from seasonal adjustments or shifts in labor demand.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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