Polymarket traders' consensus clusters around a year-end S&P 500 range of $6,500-$7,500, with closely matched 29% and 26% implied probabilities for the $6,500-$7,000 and $7,000-$7,500 bins, reflecting balanced risks from reaccelerating inflation versus robust earnings. The April CPI release on May 12 showed a 3.8% year-over-year rise—the highest since May 2023—driven by 17.9% energy gains, prompting a brief S&P pullback from 7,460 intraday highs despite rebounding to 7,444 close on May 13. Q1 earnings growth hit 28%, exceeding estimates, while the Fed held fed funds at 3.5%-3.75% in late April amid record dissent. Wall Street targets average 7,600-8,000, but skin-in-the-game sentiment prices downside from potential June FOMC hawkishness and oil volatility against AI-fueled upside.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?
¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?
$7,000-$7,500 29%
$7,500-$8,000 15%
$6,500-$7,000 15%
<$6,000 14%
$25,219 Vol.
$25,219 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<$6,000
14%
$6,000-$6,500
14%
$6,500-$7,000
24%
$7,000-$7,500
27%
$7,500-$8,000
15%
>$8,000
13%
$7,000-$7,500 29%
$7,500-$8,000 15%
$6,500-$7,000 15%
<$6,000 14%
$25,219 Vol.
$25,219 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<$6,000
$15,544 Vol.
14%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,479 Vol.
14%
$6,500-$7,000
$2,389 Vol.
24%
$7,000-$7,500
$1,114 Vol.
27%
$7,500-$8,000
$2,401 Vol.
15%
>$8,000
$2,293 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders' consensus clusters around a year-end S&P 500 range of $6,500-$7,500, with closely matched 29% and 26% implied probabilities for the $6,500-$7,000 and $7,000-$7,500 bins, reflecting balanced risks from reaccelerating inflation versus robust earnings. The April CPI release on May 12 showed a 3.8% year-over-year rise—the highest since May 2023—driven by 17.9% energy gains, prompting a brief S&P pullback from 7,460 intraday highs despite rebounding to 7,444 close on May 13. Q1 earnings growth hit 28%, exceeding estimates, while the Fed held fed funds at 3.5%-3.75% in late April amid record dissent. Wall Street targets average 7,600-8,000, but skin-in-the-game sentiment prices downside from potential June FOMC hawkishness and oil volatility against AI-fueled upside.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volumen
$25,219Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders' consensus clusters around a year-end S&P 500 range of $6,500-$7,500, with closely matched 29% and 26% implied probabilities for the $6,500-$7,000 and $7,000-$7,500 bins, reflecting balanced risks from reaccelerating inflation versus robust earnings. The April CPI release on May 12 showed a 3.8% year-over-year rise—the highest since May 2023—driven by 17.9% energy gains, prompting a brief S&P pullback from 7,460 intraday highs despite rebounding to 7,444 close on May 13. Q1 earnings growth hit 28%, exceeding estimates, while the Fed held fed funds at 3.5%-3.75% in late April amid record dissent. Wall Street targets average 7,600-8,000, but skin-in-the-game sentiment prices downside from potential June FOMC hawkishness and oil volatility against AI-fueled upside.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volumen
$25,219Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' consensus clusters around a year-end S&P 500 range of $6,500-$7,500, with closely matched 29% and 26% implied probabilities for the $6,500-$7,000 and $7,000-$7,500 bins, reflecting balanced risks from reaccelerating inflation versus robust earnings. The April CPI release on May 12 showed a 3.8% year-over-year rise—the highest since May 2023—driven by 17.9% energy gains, prompting a brief S&P pullback from 7,460 intraday highs despite rebounding to 7,444 close on May 13. Q1 earnings growth hit 28%, exceeding estimates, while the Fed held fed funds at 3.5%-3.75% in late April amid record dissent. Wall Street targets average 7,600-8,000, but skin-in-the-game sentiment prices downside from potential June FOMC hawkishness and oil volatility against AI-fueled upside.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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