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icon for ¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?

¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?

icon for ¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?

¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?

dic 31

dic 31

>$8,000 35%

$7,500-$8,000 21%

$7,000-$7,500 16%

$6,500-$7,000 12%

Polymarket

$39,542 Vol.

>$8,000 35%

$7,500-$8,000 21%

$7,000-$7,500 16%

$6,500-$7,000 12%

Polymarket

$39,542 Vol.

<$6,000

$20,382 Vol.

6%

$6,000-$6,500

$2,301 Vol.

8%

$6,500-$7,000

$4,408 Vol.

12%

$7,000-$7,500

$2,460 Vol.

18%

$7,500-$8,000

$3,974 Vol.

21%

>$8,000

$6,018 Vol.

40%

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader sentiment in the S&P 500 end-of-2026 close market shows the >$8,000 outcome leading at 39.5% amid the index trading near 7,750 in mid-August, fueled by robust corporate earnings growth projected at 24% for 2026 and ongoing AI-driven capital expenditures. Recent analyst revisions, including Goldman Sachs lifting its year-end target to 8,000, reflect resilient economic data and expectations for Federal Reserve policy support as inflation moderates. Market-implied odds price in continued equity gains from current levels, though narrow leadership concentration and potential geopolitical or energy price shocks introduce uncertainty around whether momentum sustains above 8,000 or settles in the $7,500–$8,000 range.

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volumen
$39,542
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader sentiment in the S&P 500 end-of-2026 close market shows the >$8,000 outcome leading at 39.5% amid the index trading near 7,750 in mid-August, fueled by robust corporate earnings growth projected at 24% for 2026 and ongoing AI-driven capital expenditures. Recent analyst revisions, including Goldman Sachs lifting its year-end target to 8,000, reflect resilient economic data and expectations for Federal Reserve policy support as inflation moderates. Market-implied odds price in continued equity gains from current levels, though narrow leadership concentration and potential geopolitical or energy price shocks introduce uncertainty around whether momentum sustains above 8,000 or settles in the $7,500–$8,000 range.

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volumen
$39,542
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 6 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es ">$8,000" con 40%, seguido de "$7,500-$8,000" con 21%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 40¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 40% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?" ha generado $39.5K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Jan 6, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?", explora los 6 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?" es ">$8,000" con 40%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 40% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "$7,500-$8,000" con 21%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Qué cerrará el S&P 500 (SPX) a finales de 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.