The recent Trump-Xi summit in Beijing produced only incremental steps toward managed trade, including new bilateral boards for commerce and investment plus tentative reciprocal reductions on roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods. These measures extend an existing truce but fall short of a comprehensive tariff agreement that would meaningfully lower baseline duties imposed earlier in the year. A Supreme Court ruling earlier curtailed presidential leverage under emergency authorities, further slowing momentum for rapid de-escalation. With just two weeks remaining before the May 31 deadline and no major new announcements since the meetings concluded, traders assign an 82 percent probability that no qualifying mutual accord will be reached in time.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoUS x China tariff agreement by May 31?
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?
$62,789 Vol.
$62,789 Vol.
31 may 2026
$62,789 Vol.
$62,789 Vol.
31 may 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.The recent Trump-Xi summit in Beijing produced only incremental steps toward managed trade, including new bilateral boards for commerce and investment plus tentative reciprocal reductions on roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods. These measures extend an existing truce but fall short of a comprehensive tariff agreement that would meaningfully lower baseline duties imposed earlier in the year. A Supreme Court ruling earlier curtailed presidential leverage under emergency authorities, further slowing momentum for rapid de-escalation. With just two weeks remaining before the May 31 deadline and no major new announcements since the meetings concluded, traders assign an 82 percent probability that no qualifying mutual accord will be reached in time.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado abierto: May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volumen
$62,789Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.The recent Trump-Xi summit in Beijing produced only incremental steps toward managed trade, including new bilateral boards for commerce and investment plus tentative reciprocal reductions on roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods. These measures extend an existing truce but fall short of a comprehensive tariff agreement that would meaningfully lower baseline duties imposed earlier in the year. A Supreme Court ruling earlier curtailed presidential leverage under emergency authorities, further slowing momentum for rapid de-escalation. With just two weeks remaining before the May 31 deadline and no major new announcements since the meetings concluded, traders assign an 82 percent probability that no qualifying mutual accord will be reached in time.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$62,789Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The recent Trump-Xi summit in Beijing produced only incremental steps toward managed trade, including new bilateral boards for commerce and investment plus tentative reciprocal reductions on roughly $30 billion in non-sensitive goods. These measures extend an existing truce but fall short of a comprehensive tariff agreement that would meaningfully lower baseline duties imposed earlier in the year. A Supreme Court ruling earlier curtailed presidential leverage under emergency authorities, further slowing momentum for rapid de-escalation. With just two weeks remaining before the May 31 deadline and no major new announcements since the meetings concluded, traders assign an 82 percent probability that no qualifying mutual accord will be reached in time.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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