Traders assign an 81% implied probability to no company reaching 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena by year-end 2026 because current frontier models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI cluster tightly between roughly 1507 and 1511, reflecting incremental gains rather than the steep capability jumps needed to clear that threshold. Anthropic holds the clearest edge among single-company outcomes at 12.5% due to its repeated leaderboard leadership with Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants, which top coding and overall arenas through strong agentic and reasoning performance. Google, OpenAI, and xAI trail with lower odds amid comparable but slightly behind releases, while smaller labs remain distant. The market reflects trader recognition that 2026 release cycles and scaling trends are unlikely to produce the required 40-plus point leap before December.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNinguno en 2026 81%
Anthropic 13%
Google 6.8%
OpenAI 1.6%
$114,213 Vol.
$114,213 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Ninguno en 2026
81%
Anthropic
13%
7%
OpenAI
2%
xAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Mistral
<1%
Ninguno en 2026 81%
Anthropic 13%
Google 6.8%
OpenAI 1.6%
$114,213 Vol.
$114,213 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Ninguno en 2026
$25,038 Vol.
81%
Anthropic
$13,930 Vol.
13%
$10,858 Vol.
7%
OpenAI
$13,071 Vol.
2%
xAI
$8,897 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$9,533 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$10,681 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$12,731 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$9,474 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Traders assign an 81% implied probability to no company reaching 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena by year-end 2026 because current frontier models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI cluster tightly between roughly 1507 and 1511, reflecting incremental gains rather than the steep capability jumps needed to clear that threshold. Anthropic holds the clearest edge among single-company outcomes at 12.5% due to its repeated leaderboard leadership with Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants, which top coding and overall arenas through strong agentic and reasoning performance. Google, OpenAI, and xAI trail with lower odds amid comparable but slightly behind releases, while smaller labs remain distant. The market reflects trader recognition that 2026 release cycles and scaling trends are unlikely to produce the required 40-plus point leap before December.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Mercado abierto: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volumen
$114,213Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Traders assign an 81% implied probability to no company reaching 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena by year-end 2026 because current frontier models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI cluster tightly between roughly 1507 and 1511, reflecting incremental gains rather than the steep capability jumps needed to clear that threshold. Anthropic holds the clearest edge among single-company outcomes at 12.5% due to its repeated leaderboard leadership with Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants, which top coding and overall arenas through strong agentic and reasoning performance. Google, OpenAI, and xAI trail with lower odds amid comparable but slightly behind releases, while smaller labs remain distant. The market reflects trader recognition that 2026 release cycles and scaling trends are unlikely to produce the required 40-plus point leap before December.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volumen
$114,213Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders assign an 81% implied probability to no company reaching 1550 Elo on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena by year-end 2026 because current frontier models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI cluster tightly between roughly 1507 and 1511, reflecting incremental gains rather than the steep capability jumps needed to clear that threshold. Anthropic holds the clearest edge among single-company outcomes at 12.5% due to its repeated leaderboard leadership with Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants, which top coding and overall arenas through strong agentic and reasoning performance. Google, OpenAI, and xAI trail with lower odds amid comparable but slightly behind releases, while smaller labs remain distant. The market reflects trader recognition that 2026 release cycles and scaling trends are unlikely to produce the required 40-plus point leap before December.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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