Current extreme drought (D3) covers about 20% of Oregon amid record-low snowpack from the warmest winter on record, multi-year precipitation deficits, and elevated evapotranspiration from above-normal temperatures. With only weeks until the August 31 deadline, the closely balanced 50.5% market-implied odds on avoiding D4 reflect genuine uncertainty over whether late-summer heat or isolated precipitation will push additional areas across the exceptional threshold per U.S. Drought Monitor criteria. Key variables include National Weather Service temperature and rainfall outlooks, model consensus on Pacific Northwest ridging, and the next several weekly USDM releases that incorporate new soil moisture and streamflow data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Llegará Oregón a D4 (sequía excepcional) antes del 31 de agosto de 2026?
¿Llegará Oregón a D4 (sequía excepcional) antes del 31 de agosto de 2026?
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 sep 2026
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 sep 2026
This market will resolve "Yes" if the D4 Exceptional Drought value shown in the official U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly "Categorical Percent Area" statistics table for Oregon published by the National Drought Mitigation Center at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx?dregion,4 is 1.00% or greater in any weekly release published from market creation through August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". D4 Exceptional Drought is defined as described at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/AbouttheData.aspx.
"Oregon" means the entire State of Oregon as recognized under U.S. law.
Eligibility is determined solely by the release's publication date, not the date its underlying map data is valid "as of" (USDM releases are typically published on Thursday but reflect conditions as of the preceding Tuesday), except as provided in the force majeure clause below.
Upon a qualifying release, the market will be held open for 7 calendar days from its publication date before finalizing, to allow for NDMC corrections. If those 7 days elapse before August 31, settlement finalizes at that point. If the qualifying release is published within 7 days of August 31, including on August 31 itself, the market will remain open past August 31 for the balance of that window, resolving at the earlier of (i) the 7 days elapsing or (ii) NDMC issuing a correction to that release. This holding period does not extend the publication-date cutoff, it only delays finalization of a release that already qualified.
If the NDMC publishes no weekly release at all before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, due to a data disruption, government shutdown, or other event, this market will accept the next official weekly release published after that date as the sole governing release, up to 14 calendar days following the scheduled expiration date, and will resolve "Yes" or "No" based on that release's D4 value under the same 1.00% threshold.
A correction will be considered only if issued before the market finalizes settlement under the holding period above. Once finalized, that determination is final and will not be revised, reopened, or reversed by any correction, revision, or retraction issued afterward. A correction issued within the holding period is fully applied to the D4 value used for resolution, and that finalization occurs after (not at the instant of) any such correction, so the corrected value governs.Current extreme drought (D3) covers about 20% of Oregon amid record-low snowpack from the warmest winter on record, multi-year precipitation deficits, and elevated evapotranspiration from above-normal temperatures. With only weeks until the August 31 deadline, the closely balanced 50.5% market-implied odds on avoiding D4 reflect genuine uncertainty over whether late-summer heat or isolated precipitation will push additional areas across the exceptional threshold per U.S. Drought Monitor criteria. Key variables include National Weather Service temperature and rainfall outlooks, model consensus on Pacific Northwest ridging, and the next several weekly USDM releases that incorporate new soil moisture and streamflow data.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the D4 Exceptional Drought value shown in the official U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly "Categorical Percent Area" statistics table for Oregon published by the National Drought Mitigation Center at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx?dregion,4 is 1.00% or greater in any weekly release published from market creation through August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". D4 Exceptional Drought is defined as described at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/AbouttheData.aspx.
"Oregon" means the entire State of Oregon as recognized under U.S. law.
Eligibility is determined solely by the release's publication date, not the date its underlying map data is valid "as of" (USDM releases are typically published on Thursday but reflect conditions as of the preceding Tuesday), except as provided in the force majeure clause below.
Upon a qualifying release, the market will be held open for 7 calendar days from its publication date before finalizing, to allow for NDMC corrections. If those 7 days elapse before August 31, settlement finalizes at that point. If the qualifying release is published within 7 days of August 31, including on August 31 itself, the market will remain open past August 31 for the balance of that window, resolving at the earlier of (i) the 7 days elapsing or (ii) NDMC issuing a correction to that release. This holding period does not extend the publication-date cutoff, it only delays finalization of a release that already qualified.
If the NDMC publishes no weekly release at all before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, due to a data disruption, government shutdown, or other event, this market will accept the next official weekly release published after that date as the sole governing release, up to 14 calendar days following the scheduled expiration date, and will resolve "Yes" or "No" based on that release's D4 value under the same 1.00% threshold.
A correction will be considered only if issued before the market finalizes settlement under the holding period above. Once finalized, that determination is final and will not be revised, reopened, or reversed by any correction, revision, or retraction issued afterward. A correction issued within the holding period is fully applied to the D4 value used for resolution, and that finalization occurs after (not at the instant of) any such correction, so the corrected value governs.
"Oregon" means the entire State of Oregon as recognized under U.S. law.
Eligibility is determined solely by the release's publication date, not the date its underlying map data is valid "as of" (USDM releases are typically published on Thursday but reflect conditions as of the preceding Tuesday), except as provided in the force majeure clause below.
Upon a qualifying release, the market will be held open for 7 calendar days from its publication date before finalizing, to allow for NDMC corrections. If those 7 days elapse before August 31, settlement finalizes at that point. If the qualifying release is published within 7 days of August 31, including on August 31 itself, the market will remain open past August 31 for the balance of that window, resolving at the earlier of (i) the 7 days elapsing or (ii) NDMC issuing a correction to that release. This holding period does not extend the publication-date cutoff, it only delays finalization of a release that already qualified.
If the NDMC publishes no weekly release at all before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, due to a data disruption, government shutdown, or other event, this market will accept the next official weekly release published after that date as the sole governing release, up to 14 calendar days following the scheduled expiration date, and will resolve "Yes" or "No" based on that release's D4 value under the same 1.00% threshold.
A correction will be considered only if issued before the market finalizes settlement under the holding period above. Once finalized, that determination is final and will not be revised, reopened, or reversed by any correction, revision, or retraction issued afterward. A correction issued within the holding period is fully applied to the D4 value used for resolution, and that finalization occurs after (not at the instant of) any such correction, so the corrected value governs.
Mercado abierto: Jul 24, 2026, 12:31 PM ET
Volumen
$20Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the D4 Exceptional Drought value shown in the official U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly "Categorical Percent Area" statistics table for Oregon published by the National Drought Mitigation Center at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx?dregion,4 is 1.00% or greater in any weekly release published from market creation through August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". D4 Exceptional Drought is defined as described at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/AbouttheData.aspx.
"Oregon" means the entire State of Oregon as recognized under U.S. law.
Eligibility is determined solely by the release's publication date, not the date its underlying map data is valid "as of" (USDM releases are typically published on Thursday but reflect conditions as of the preceding Tuesday), except as provided in the force majeure clause below.
Upon a qualifying release, the market will be held open for 7 calendar days from its publication date before finalizing, to allow for NDMC corrections. If those 7 days elapse before August 31, settlement finalizes at that point. If the qualifying release is published within 7 days of August 31, including on August 31 itself, the market will remain open past August 31 for the balance of that window, resolving at the earlier of (i) the 7 days elapsing or (ii) NDMC issuing a correction to that release. This holding period does not extend the publication-date cutoff, it only delays finalization of a release that already qualified.
If the NDMC publishes no weekly release at all before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, due to a data disruption, government shutdown, or other event, this market will accept the next official weekly release published after that date as the sole governing release, up to 14 calendar days following the scheduled expiration date, and will resolve "Yes" or "No" based on that release's D4 value under the same 1.00% threshold.
A correction will be considered only if issued before the market finalizes settlement under the holding period above. Once finalized, that determination is final and will not be revised, reopened, or reversed by any correction, revision, or retraction issued afterward. A correction issued within the holding period is fully applied to the D4 value used for resolution, and that finalization occurs after (not at the instant of) any such correction, so the corrected value governs.Current extreme drought (D3) covers about 20% of Oregon amid record-low snowpack from the warmest winter on record, multi-year precipitation deficits, and elevated evapotranspiration from above-normal temperatures. With only weeks until the August 31 deadline, the closely balanced 50.5% market-implied odds on avoiding D4 reflect genuine uncertainty over whether late-summer heat or isolated precipitation will push additional areas across the exceptional threshold per U.S. Drought Monitor criteria. Key variables include National Weather Service temperature and rainfall outlooks, model consensus on Pacific Northwest ridging, and the next several weekly USDM releases that incorporate new soil moisture and streamflow data.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the D4 Exceptional Drought value shown in the official U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly "Categorical Percent Area" statistics table for Oregon published by the National Drought Mitigation Center at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx?dregion,4 is 1.00% or greater in any weekly release published from market creation through August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". D4 Exceptional Drought is defined as described at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/AbouttheData.aspx.
"Oregon" means the entire State of Oregon as recognized under U.S. law.
Eligibility is determined solely by the release's publication date, not the date its underlying map data is valid "as of" (USDM releases are typically published on Thursday but reflect conditions as of the preceding Tuesday), except as provided in the force majeure clause below.
Upon a qualifying release, the market will be held open for 7 calendar days from its publication date before finalizing, to allow for NDMC corrections. If those 7 days elapse before August 31, settlement finalizes at that point. If the qualifying release is published within 7 days of August 31, including on August 31 itself, the market will remain open past August 31 for the balance of that window, resolving at the earlier of (i) the 7 days elapsing or (ii) NDMC issuing a correction to that release. This holding period does not extend the publication-date cutoff, it only delays finalization of a release that already qualified.
If the NDMC publishes no weekly release at all before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, due to a data disruption, government shutdown, or other event, this market will accept the next official weekly release published after that date as the sole governing release, up to 14 calendar days following the scheduled expiration date, and will resolve "Yes" or "No" based on that release's D4 value under the same 1.00% threshold.
A correction will be considered only if issued before the market finalizes settlement under the holding period above. Once finalized, that determination is final and will not be revised, reopened, or reversed by any correction, revision, or retraction issued afterward. A correction issued within the holding period is fully applied to the D4 value used for resolution, and that finalization occurs after (not at the instant of) any such correction, so the corrected value governs.
"Oregon" means the entire State of Oregon as recognized under U.S. law.
Eligibility is determined solely by the release's publication date, not the date its underlying map data is valid "as of" (USDM releases are typically published on Thursday but reflect conditions as of the preceding Tuesday), except as provided in the force majeure clause below.
Upon a qualifying release, the market will be held open for 7 calendar days from its publication date before finalizing, to allow for NDMC corrections. If those 7 days elapse before August 31, settlement finalizes at that point. If the qualifying release is published within 7 days of August 31, including on August 31 itself, the market will remain open past August 31 for the balance of that window, resolving at the earlier of (i) the 7 days elapsing or (ii) NDMC issuing a correction to that release. This holding period does not extend the publication-date cutoff, it only delays finalization of a release that already qualified.
If the NDMC publishes no weekly release at all before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, due to a data disruption, government shutdown, or other event, this market will accept the next official weekly release published after that date as the sole governing release, up to 14 calendar days following the scheduled expiration date, and will resolve "Yes" or "No" based on that release's D4 value under the same 1.00% threshold.
A correction will be considered only if issued before the market finalizes settlement under the holding period above. Once finalized, that determination is final and will not be revised, reopened, or reversed by any correction, revision, or retraction issued afterward. A correction issued within the holding period is fully applied to the D4 value used for resolution, and that finalization occurs after (not at the instant of) any such correction, so the corrected value governs.
Volumen
$20Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current extreme drought (D3) covers about 20% of Oregon amid record-low snowpack from the warmest winter on record, multi-year precipitation deficits, and elevated evapotranspiration from above-normal temperatures. With only weeks until the August 31 deadline, the closely balanced 50.5% market-implied odds on avoiding D4 reflect genuine uncertainty over whether late-summer heat or isolated precipitation will push additional areas across the exceptional threshold per U.S. Drought Monitor criteria. Key variables include National Weather Service temperature and rainfall outlooks, model consensus on Pacific Northwest ridging, and the next several weekly USDM releases that incorporate new soil moisture and streamflow data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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