The Iranian regime's survival through sustained domestic unrest and external military pressure underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Nationwide protests that erupted in December 2025 over economic hardship and currency devaluation were contained by mid-January 2026 through coordinated security operations, internet restrictions, and arrests, with no evidence of widespread defections in the Revolutionary Guards or regular forces. Following U.S.-Israeli strikes and the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the regime transitioned leadership to Mojtaba Khamenei, reorganized its armed forces command structure, and suppressed any follow-on uprisings. As of August 2026, ongoing military appointments and factional management indicate institutional cohesion amid sanctions and inflation, with no verified developments indicating imminent overthrow.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
7% probabilidad
$24,680,978 Vol.
$24,680,978 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
7% probabilidad
$24,680,978 Vol.
$24,680,978 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through sustained domestic unrest and external military pressure underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Nationwide protests that erupted in December 2025 over economic hardship and currency devaluation were contained by mid-January 2026 through coordinated security operations, internet restrictions, and arrests, with no evidence of widespread defections in the Revolutionary Guards or regular forces. Following U.S.-Israeli strikes and the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the regime transitioned leadership to Mojtaba Khamenei, reorganized its armed forces command structure, and suppressed any follow-on uprisings. As of August 2026, ongoing military appointments and factional management indicate institutional cohesion amid sanctions and inflation, with no verified developments indicating imminent overthrow.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volumen
$24,680,978Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through sustained domestic unrest and external military pressure underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Nationwide protests that erupted in December 2025 over economic hardship and currency devaluation were contained by mid-January 2026 through coordinated security operations, internet restrictions, and arrests, with no evidence of widespread defections in the Revolutionary Guards or regular forces. Following U.S.-Israeli strikes and the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the regime transitioned leadership to Mojtaba Khamenei, reorganized its armed forces command structure, and suppressed any follow-on uprisings. As of August 2026, ongoing military appointments and factional management indicate institutional cohesion amid sanctions and inflation, with no verified developments indicating imminent overthrow.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$24,680,978Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's survival through sustained domestic unrest and external military pressure underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Nationwide protests that erupted in December 2025 over economic hardship and currency devaluation were contained by mid-January 2026 through coordinated security operations, internet restrictions, and arrests, with no evidence of widespread defections in the Revolutionary Guards or regular forces. Following U.S.-Israeli strikes and the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the regime transitioned leadership to Mojtaba Khamenei, reorganized its armed forces command structure, and suppressed any follow-on uprisings. As of August 2026, ongoing military appointments and factional management indicate institutional cohesion amid sanctions and inflation, with no verified developments indicating imminent overthrow.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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