The Salvator Mundi’s 89.5% “No” odds reflect its prolonged absence from public view since the 2017 Christie’s sale, with the Leonardo-attributed work remaining in secure Geneva storage under Saudi ownership and no verified exhibition plans through late 2026. Canceled loans, including the 2018 Louvre Abu Dhabi showing, and the painting’s intended role as centerpiece for a new Riyadh or Al-Ula museum tied to Vision 2030 have produced uncertain construction timelines that extend beyond the December 31 resolution date. Traders weigh the owner’s history of secrecy and preference for permanent institutional placement over short-term loans against any speculative late-year announcement, with credible reporting from outlets like The Art Newspaper required for a “Yes” outcome. No guild-style precursors, critic previews, or official statements have shifted momentum in recent months.