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icon for French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Elections·Global Elections

French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

icon for French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Elections·Global Elections

French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?

$97,912 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$97,912 Vol.

Polymarket

Jordan Bardella

$6,378 Vol.

10%

Michel Barnier

$422 Vol.

10%

Valérie Pécresse

$1,266 Vol.

4%

Élisabeth Borne

$3,034 Vol.

10%

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$1,089 Vol.

8%

Jean Castex

$1,246 Vol.

2%

Gérald Darmanin

$1,178 Vol.

6%

Sébastien Lecornu

$4,032 Vol.

10%

François Bayrou

$1,353 Vol.

1%

Bernard Cazeneuve

$1,321 Vol.

38%

Carole Delga

$1,459 Vol.

6%

François Hollande

$1,666 Vol.

61%

Manuel Bompard

$3,355 Vol.

7%

Mathilde Panot

$19,320 Vol.

3%

Dominique de Villepin

$1,664 Vol.

62%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Multiple high-profile figures have declared candidacies for France’s April 2027 presidential election throughout 2026, shaping expectations for remaining announcements before year-end.** Gabriel Attal (May), Jean-Luc Mélenchon (May), Bruno Retailleau (April party backing), Marine Le Pen (July, following her appeal ruling that shortened her ineligibility period), Édouard Philippe, Raphaël Glucksmann (August), Olivier Faure, Fabien Roussel (September), and Éric Zemmour (mid-September) have all entered the race or secured nominations. A crowded field of over 30 declared contenders reflects the open contest after Emmanuel Macron’s term limit, with trader attention centered on potential late-2026 moves from figures in the center-right or left primaries. The left’s October 2026 primary and ongoing center fragmentation versus far-right polling strength remain key variables that could prompt or deter further entries. Resolution timing for any additional major announcements hinges on party processes and polling shifts through the fall.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.

Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$97,912
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 6:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Multiple high-profile figures have declared candidacies for France’s April 2027 presidential election throughout 2026, shaping expectations for remaining announcements before year-end.** Gabriel Attal (May), Jean-Luc Mélenchon (May), Bruno Retailleau (April party backing), Marine Le Pen (July, following her appeal ruling that shortened her ineligibility period), Édouard Philippe, Raphaël Glucksmann (August), Olivier Faure, Fabien Roussel (September), and Éric Zemmour (mid-September) have all entered the race or secured nominations. A crowded field of over 30 declared contenders reflects the open contest after Emmanuel Macron’s term limit, with trader attention centered on potential late-2026 moves from figures in the center-right or left primaries. The left’s October 2026 primary and ongoing center fragmentation versus far-right polling strength remain key variables that could prompt or deter further entries. Resolution timing for any additional major announcements hinges on party processes and polling shifts through the fall.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot.

Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$97,912
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 6:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Éric Zemmour" at 100%, followed by "Gabriel Attal" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" has generated $97.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 22, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" is "Éric Zemmour" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gabriel Attal" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.