Jordan Bardella leads trader expectations as the National Rally candidate for the 2027 French presidential election due to Marine Le Pen’s ongoing legal appeal against her 2025 embezzlement conviction and five-year ban from public office. The Paris Court of Appeal ruling scheduled for July 2026 remains the decisive near-term factor, with market pricing reflecting the view that Bardella would assume the role if the ban is upheld. Recent municipal election gains by the National Rally have reinforced Bardella’s position within the party, where internal polling shows stronger supporter preference for him over Le Pen. Broader first-round voting intentions continue to favor an RN nominee, though the final candidate selection hinges on the court outcome and any subsequent internal party decisions.