The June 28 provincial elections, which will determine the makeup of New Caledonia’s Congress and its next government president, remain highly fragmented with no bloc holding a clear path to a majority. Recent voter-roll adjustments, the rejection of the Bougival Accord by key independence groups, and lingering effects of the 2024 unrest have kept loyalist and pro-independence lists competitive across provinces. Incumbent Alcide Ponga’s current administration provides continuity for some traders, while multiple lists headed by figures such as Sonia Backès, Virginie Ruffenach, Louis Mapou, and Pierre-Chanel Tutugoro reflect ongoing coalition negotiations and the collegial selection process for the government president. With polls just days away and post-election talks scheduled for July, the balanced pricing captures uncertainty over final seat distributions and potential cross-bloc deals.