The US Commerce Department’s June 12, 2026 export-control directive, issued on national-security grounds after reports of a potential jailbreak method for the newly released Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models, required Anthropic to bar access by any foreign national inside or outside the United States. Compliance proved impossible without global suspension, prompting immediate legal challenges including an Anthropic suit against the Pentagon and at least one early court ruling limiting enforcement. Trader focus centers on whether the administration will narrow or lift the restrictions through revised licensing, court outcomes, or policy adjustments in the coming weeks, with resolution hinging on verifiable agency announcements or judicial decisions before any market deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/06/16
6月15日
6%
6月30日
38%
$331 Vol.
6月15日
$28 Vol.
6%
6月30日
$303 Vol.
38%
On June 12, 2026, the US government directed Anthropic to suspend access to Fable 5 for foreign nationals, whether inside or outside the United States (see: https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or Anthropic publicly and officially announce that this directive has been rescinded, waived, modified, or otherwise lifted such that blocking public access to Claude Fable 5 for all non-US nationals is no longer directed by the US federal government by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must clearly indicate that guidance from the United States federal government no longer directs Anthropic to block public access to Claude Fable 5 for all foreign nationals. A partial lifting of the restriction will qualify, provided it allows renewed public access for at least some non-US nationals. Anthropic announcements that Fable 5 will be released for public access, without announcing qualifying US government guidance, will not count.
Announcements must specifically relate to the model Fable 5. Qualifying announcements may include that revised US government guidance allows public access to Fable 5 for non-US nationals with additional model safety restrictions; however, if such restrictions cause Anthropic to release the model under a different name, this will not qualify.
The relevant access must be public; adjusted guidance from the United States government that access to Fable 5 may be restored for select companies will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump, including posts from his personal Truth Social account, will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from President Trump, the US government, and Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The US Commerce Department’s June 12, 2026 export-control directive, issued on national-security grounds after reports of a potential jailbreak method for the newly released Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models, required Anthropic to bar access by any foreign national inside or outside the United States. Compliance proved impossible without global suspension, prompting immediate legal challenges including an Anthropic suit against the Pentagon and at least one early court ruling limiting enforcement. Trader focus centers on whether the administration will narrow or lift the restrictions through revised licensing, court outcomes, or policy adjustments in the coming weeks, with resolution hinging on verifiable agency announcements or judicial decisions before any market deadline.
On June 12, 2026, the US government directed Anthropic to suspend access to Fable 5 for foreign nationals, whether inside or outside the United States (see: https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or Anthropic publicly and officially announce that this directive has been rescinded, waived, modified, or otherwise lifted such that blocking public access to Claude Fable 5 for all non-US nationals is no longer directed by the US federal government by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must clearly indicate that guidance from the United States federal government no longer directs Anthropic to block public access to Claude Fable 5 for all foreign nationals. A partial lifting of the restriction will qualify, provided it allows renewed public access for at least some non-US nationals. Anthropic announcements that Fable 5 will be released for public access, without announcing qualifying US government guidance, will not count.
Announcements must specifically relate to the model Fable 5. Qualifying announcements may include that revised US government guidance allows public access to Fable 5 for non-US nationals with additional model safety restrictions; however, if such restrictions cause Anthropic to release the model under a different name, this will not qualify.
The relevant access must be public; adjusted guidance from the United States government that access to Fable 5 may be restored for select companies will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump, including posts from his personal Truth Social account, will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from President Trump, the US government, and Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or Anthropic publicly and officially announce that this directive has been rescinded, waived, modified, or otherwise lifted such that blocking public access to Claude Fable 5 for all non-US nationals is no longer directed by the US federal government by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must clearly indicate that guidance from the United States federal government no longer directs Anthropic to block public access to Claude Fable 5 for all foreign nationals. A partial lifting of the restriction will qualify, provided it allows renewed public access for at least some non-US nationals. Anthropic announcements that Fable 5 will be released for public access, without announcing qualifying US government guidance, will not count.
Announcements must specifically relate to the model Fable 5. Qualifying announcements may include that revised US government guidance allows public access to Fable 5 for non-US nationals with additional model safety restrictions; however, if such restrictions cause Anthropic to release the model under a different name, this will not qualify.
The relevant access must be public; adjusted guidance from the United States government that access to Fable 5 may be restored for select companies will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump, including posts from his personal Truth Social account, will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from President Trump, the US government, and Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jun 13, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
音量
$331終了日
2026/07/01マーケット開始日
Jun 13, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On June 12, 2026, the US government directed Anthropic to suspend access to Fable 5 for foreign nationals, whether inside or outside the United States (see: https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or Anthropic publicly and officially announce that this directive has been rescinded, waived, modified, or otherwise lifted such that blocking public access to Claude Fable 5 for all non-US nationals is no longer directed by the US federal government by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must clearly indicate that guidance from the United States federal government no longer directs Anthropic to block public access to Claude Fable 5 for all foreign nationals. A partial lifting of the restriction will qualify, provided it allows renewed public access for at least some non-US nationals. Anthropic announcements that Fable 5 will be released for public access, without announcing qualifying US government guidance, will not count.
Announcements must specifically relate to the model Fable 5. Qualifying announcements may include that revised US government guidance allows public access to Fable 5 for non-US nationals with additional model safety restrictions; however, if such restrictions cause Anthropic to release the model under a different name, this will not qualify.
The relevant access must be public; adjusted guidance from the United States government that access to Fable 5 may be restored for select companies will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump, including posts from his personal Truth Social account, will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from President Trump, the US government, and Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The US Commerce Department’s June 12, 2026 export-control directive, issued on national-security grounds after reports of a potential jailbreak method for the newly released Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models, required Anthropic to bar access by any foreign national inside or outside the United States. Compliance proved impossible without global suspension, prompting immediate legal challenges including an Anthropic suit against the Pentagon and at least one early court ruling limiting enforcement. Trader focus centers on whether the administration will narrow or lift the restrictions through revised licensing, court outcomes, or policy adjustments in the coming weeks, with resolution hinging on verifiable agency announcements or judicial decisions before any market deadline.
On June 12, 2026, the US government directed Anthropic to suspend access to Fable 5 for foreign nationals, whether inside or outside the United States (see: https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or Anthropic publicly and officially announce that this directive has been rescinded, waived, modified, or otherwise lifted such that blocking public access to Claude Fable 5 for all non-US nationals is no longer directed by the US federal government by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must clearly indicate that guidance from the United States federal government no longer directs Anthropic to block public access to Claude Fable 5 for all foreign nationals. A partial lifting of the restriction will qualify, provided it allows renewed public access for at least some non-US nationals. Anthropic announcements that Fable 5 will be released for public access, without announcing qualifying US government guidance, will not count.
Announcements must specifically relate to the model Fable 5. Qualifying announcements may include that revised US government guidance allows public access to Fable 5 for non-US nationals with additional model safety restrictions; however, if such restrictions cause Anthropic to release the model under a different name, this will not qualify.
The relevant access must be public; adjusted guidance from the United States government that access to Fable 5 may be restored for select companies will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump, including posts from his personal Truth Social account, will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from President Trump, the US government, and Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or Anthropic publicly and officially announce that this directive has been rescinded, waived, modified, or otherwise lifted such that blocking public access to Claude Fable 5 for all non-US nationals is no longer directed by the US federal government by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying announcement must clearly indicate that guidance from the United States federal government no longer directs Anthropic to block public access to Claude Fable 5 for all foreign nationals. A partial lifting of the restriction will qualify, provided it allows renewed public access for at least some non-US nationals. Anthropic announcements that Fable 5 will be released for public access, without announcing qualifying US government guidance, will not count.
Announcements must specifically relate to the model Fable 5. Qualifying announcements may include that revised US government guidance allows public access to Fable 5 for non-US nationals with additional model safety restrictions; however, if such restrictions cause Anthropic to release the model under a different name, this will not qualify.
The relevant access must be public; adjusted guidance from the United States government that access to Fable 5 may be restored for select companies will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump, including posts from his personal Truth Social account, will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from President Trump, the US government, and Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$331終了日
2026/07/01マーケット開始日
Jun 13, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US Commerce Department’s June 12, 2026 export-control directive, issued on national-security grounds after reports of a potential jailbreak method for the newly released Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models, required Anthropic to bar access by any foreign national inside or outside the United States. Compliance proved impossible without global suspension, prompting immediate legal challenges including an Anthropic suit against the Pentagon and at least one early court ruling limiting enforcement. Trader focus centers on whether the administration will narrow or lift the restrictions through revised licensing, court outcomes, or policy adjustments in the coming weeks, with resolution hinging on verifiable agency announcements or judicial decisions before any market deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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