Recent developments in Japan’s monetary policy have driven strong trader consensus toward a 25 basis point rate increase at the Bank of Japan’s June 16 meeting. The April 28 decision to hold the policy rate at 0.75 percent featured a hawkish 6-3 board split, with three members favoring an immediate hike, alongside an upgrade to the fiscal 2026 core CPI forecast to 2.8 percent from 1.9 percent amid elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East tensions. A Reuters poll of economists conducted May 7-14 showed 65 percent expecting the rate to reach 1.0 percent by end-June, aligning with overnight index swap pricing that places roughly 77 percent probability on a move. Persistent yen weakness near 157 against the dollar and recent suspected foreign-exchange interventions have reinforced expectations for normalization, while downgraded growth forecasts introduce modest uncertainty around the exact timing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHausse de 25 points de base 79.8%
Pas de changement 17%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base 1.1%
Diminuer les taux <1%
$116,634 Vol.
$116,634 Vol.
16 juin 2026
Diminuer les taux
1%
Pas de changement
17%
Hausse de 25 points de base
80%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base
1%
Hausse de 25 points de base 79.8%
Pas de changement 17%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base 1.1%
Diminuer les taux <1%
$116,634 Vol.
$116,634 Vol.
16 juin 2026
Diminuer les taux
$34,155 Vol.
1%
Pas de changement
$30,201 Vol.
17%
Hausse de 25 points de base
$27,901 Vol.
80%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base
$24,377 Vol.
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent developments in Japan’s monetary policy have driven strong trader consensus toward a 25 basis point rate increase at the Bank of Japan’s June 16 meeting. The April 28 decision to hold the policy rate at 0.75 percent featured a hawkish 6-3 board split, with three members favoring an immediate hike, alongside an upgrade to the fiscal 2026 core CPI forecast to 2.8 percent from 1.9 percent amid elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East tensions. A Reuters poll of economists conducted May 7-14 showed 65 percent expecting the rate to reach 1.0 percent by end-June, aligning with overnight index swap pricing that places roughly 77 percent probability on a move. Persistent yen weakness near 157 against the dollar and recent suspected foreign-exchange interventions have reinforced expectations for normalization, while downgraded growth forecasts introduce modest uncertainty around the exact timing.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Volume
$116,634Date de fin
16 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent developments in Japan’s monetary policy have driven strong trader consensus toward a 25 basis point rate increase at the Bank of Japan’s June 16 meeting. The April 28 decision to hold the policy rate at 0.75 percent featured a hawkish 6-3 board split, with three members favoring an immediate hike, alongside an upgrade to the fiscal 2026 core CPI forecast to 2.8 percent from 1.9 percent amid elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East tensions. A Reuters poll of economists conducted May 7-14 showed 65 percent expecting the rate to reach 1.0 percent by end-June, aligning with overnight index swap pricing that places roughly 77 percent probability on a move. Persistent yen weakness near 157 against the dollar and recent suspected foreign-exchange interventions have reinforced expectations for normalization, while downgraded growth forecasts introduce modest uncertainty around the exact timing.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$116,634Date de fin
16 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent developments in Japan’s monetary policy have driven strong trader consensus toward a 25 basis point rate increase at the Bank of Japan’s June 16 meeting. The April 28 decision to hold the policy rate at 0.75 percent featured a hawkish 6-3 board split, with three members favoring an immediate hike, alongside an upgrade to the fiscal 2026 core CPI forecast to 2.8 percent from 1.9 percent amid elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East tensions. A Reuters poll of economists conducted May 7-14 showed 65 percent expecting the rate to reach 1.0 percent by end-June, aligning with overnight index swap pricing that places roughly 77 percent probability on a move. Persistent yen weakness near 157 against the dollar and recent suspected foreign-exchange interventions have reinforced expectations for normalization, while downgraded growth forecasts introduce modest uncertainty around the exact timing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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