**The market-implied 82.6% probability for “No” on charges being dropped by October 31 reflects the recent filing of serious felony counts against the “looksmaxxing” influencer and streamer known as Clavicular (Braden Peters) in Massachusetts.** Court records show prosecutors filed rape, drugging a person for sexual intercourse, and procuring alcohol for a minor charges on September 8, 2026, tied to an alleged May 2025 incident on Cape Cod involving a then-17-year-old. Probable cause was found, and an arraignment is scheduled for October 14—well before the market’s cutoff—placing the case in its earliest procedural stage. This contrasts with prior matters, such as the Florida battery/conspiracy case and Arizona felonies, where prosecutors declined to pursue charges due to insufficient evidence. Those resolutions came after months of investigation and did not involve comparable felony exposure. Here, the timeline, severity of the allegations, and active pretrial process make a swift dismissal by late October highly improbable under standard prosecutorial and court practices. Traders are pricing in the limited window for any meaningful development between now and October 31, with the upcoming arraignment more likely to advance proceedings than resolve them. The market treats the charges as distinct from earlier dropped matters and views rapid dismissal as inconsistent with how similar cases typically progress.