Rising eurozone inflation, fueled by energy price spikes from the Middle East conflict, stands as the dominant catalyst positioning a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike at the June 2026 meeting as the clear market leader at 84% implied probability. Following the April 30 hold at 2.00%, policymakers highlighted intensified upside risks to inflation and second-round effects, prompting traders to price in tightening despite soft Q1 GDP growth of just 0.1%. Recent Reuters and Bloomberg surveys show economists aligning closely, with roughly 85% anticipating the initial 25 basis point move in June followed by at least one more later in the year. Weak underlying demand tempers bets on larger hikes, keeping no-change odds at 14.8%, while the June 11 decision remains the next key data-dependent catalyst.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
Hausse de 25 points de base 84%
No change 14.8%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$275,340 Vol.
$275,340 Vol.
11 juin 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
15%
Hausse de 25 points de base
84%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base
1%
Hausse de 25 points de base 84%
No change 14.8%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$275,340 Vol.
$275,340 Vol.
11 juin 2026
50+ bps decrease
$54,094 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$43,932 Vol.
<1%
No change
$52,050 Vol.
15%
Hausse de 25 points de base
$72,056 Vol.
84%
Hausse de plus de 50 points de base
$53,209 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Rising eurozone inflation, fueled by energy price spikes from the Middle East conflict, stands as the dominant catalyst positioning a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike at the June 2026 meeting as the clear market leader at 84% implied probability. Following the April 30 hold at 2.00%, policymakers highlighted intensified upside risks to inflation and second-round effects, prompting traders to price in tightening despite soft Q1 GDP growth of just 0.1%. Recent Reuters and Bloomberg surveys show economists aligning closely, with roughly 85% anticipating the initial 25 basis point move in June followed by at least one more later in the year. Weak underlying demand tempers bets on larger hikes, keeping no-change odds at 14.8%, while the June 11 decision remains the next key data-dependent catalyst.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$275,340Date de fin
11 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Rising eurozone inflation, fueled by energy price spikes from the Middle East conflict, stands as the dominant catalyst positioning a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike at the June 2026 meeting as the clear market leader at 84% implied probability. Following the April 30 hold at 2.00%, policymakers highlighted intensified upside risks to inflation and second-round effects, prompting traders to price in tightening despite soft Q1 GDP growth of just 0.1%. Recent Reuters and Bloomberg surveys show economists aligning closely, with roughly 85% anticipating the initial 25 basis point move in June followed by at least one more later in the year. Weak underlying demand tempers bets on larger hikes, keeping no-change odds at 14.8%, while the June 11 decision remains the next key data-dependent catalyst.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volume
$275,340Date de fin
11 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Rising eurozone inflation, fueled by energy price spikes from the Middle East conflict, stands as the dominant catalyst positioning a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike at the June 2026 meeting as the clear market leader at 84% implied probability. Following the April 30 hold at 2.00%, policymakers highlighted intensified upside risks to inflation and second-round effects, prompting traders to price in tightening despite soft Q1 GDP growth of just 0.1%. Recent Reuters and Bloomberg surveys show economists aligning closely, with roughly 85% anticipating the initial 25 basis point move in June followed by at least one more later in the year. Weak underlying demand tempers bets on larger hikes, keeping no-change odds at 14.8%, while the June 11 decision remains the next key data-dependent catalyst.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes