Mercedes' targeted low-downforce upgrades debuting this weekend, paired with the team's strong historical single-lap record at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve—including George Russell's recent poles there—have anchored trader consensus around the Mercedes duo for pole position. Russell edges ahead at 30.5% implied probability thanks to his experience in qualifying trim and last year's Canadian success, while teammate Kimi Antonelli sits at 23% on the strength of multiple early-season poles and championship momentum. Max Verstappen at 26.5% and the McLaren pair of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri remain close behind, reflecting Red Bull and McLaren's consistent pace on similar layouts but a slight deficit to Mercedes' current qualifying edge amid mixed Ferrari form. The tight spread across the top five highlights a highly competitive qualifying session where small margins and track-specific factors could shift outcomes quickly.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourGeorge Russell 31%
Max Verstappen 28%
Kimi Antonelli 23%
Charles Leclerc 20%
George Russell
31%
Max Verstappen
26%
Kimi Antonelli
23%
Charles Leclerc
15%
Lando Norris
18%
Oscar Piastri
17%
Lewis Hamilton
10%
Isack Hadjar
3%
Carlos Sainz Jr.
2%
Pierre Gasly
2%
Gabriel Bortoleto
2%
Alexander Albon
2%
Oliver Bearman
2%
Valtteri Bottas
1%
Esteban Ocon
1%
Lance Stroll
1%
Nico Hulkenberg
1%
Arvid Lindblad
<1%
Sergio Perez
<1%
Fernando Alonso
<1%
Franco Colapinto
<1%
Liam Lawson
<1%
George Russell 31%
Max Verstappen 28%
Kimi Antonelli 23%
Charles Leclerc 20%
George Russell
31%
Max Verstappen
26%
Kimi Antonelli
23%
Charles Leclerc
15%
Lando Norris
18%
Oscar Piastri
17%
Lewis Hamilton
10%
Isack Hadjar
3%
Carlos Sainz Jr.
2%
Pierre Gasly
2%
Gabriel Bortoleto
2%
Alexander Albon
2%
Oliver Bearman
2%
Valtteri Bottas
1%
Esteban Ocon
1%
Lance Stroll
1%
Nico Hulkenberg
1%
Arvid Lindblad
<1%
Sergio Perez
<1%
Fernando Alonso
<1%
Franco Colapinto
<1%
Liam Lawson
<1%
If the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after May 30, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a driver sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that driver.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Marché ouvert : Apr 25, 2026, 7:31 AM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...If the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after May 30, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a driver sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that driver.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Source de résolution
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mercedes' targeted low-downforce upgrades debuting this weekend, paired with the team's strong historical single-lap record at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve—including George Russell's recent poles there—have anchored trader consensus around the Mercedes duo for pole position. Russell edges ahead at 30.5% implied probability thanks to his experience in qualifying trim and last year's Canadian success, while teammate Kimi Antonelli sits at 23% on the strength of multiple early-season poles and championship momentum. Max Verstappen at 26.5% and the McLaren pair of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri remain close behind, reflecting Red Bull and McLaren's consistent pace on similar layouts but a slight deficit to Mercedes' current qualifying edge amid mixed Ferrari form. The tight spread across the top five highlights a highly competitive qualifying session where small margins and track-specific factors could shift outcomes quickly.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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