The 2026 Spanish Grand Prix at Madring concluded without a physical safety car deployment, underpinning the market's 100% consensus on "No." A single brief virtual safety car was triggered mid-race when Lance Stroll retired with brake failure on lap 13-15, allowing some drivers to pit under reduced speeds while others, including polesitter Lando Norris, missed the window and lost significant track position. The new street circuit produced a largely processional race with limited on-track incidents, first-lap contact damage, and no further retirements or debris requiring full-course neutralization. Traders priced in this outcome based on the event's completion and historical patterns at similar venues, where full safety cars remain relatively uncommon absent major crashes or weather disruptions. Scenarios that could have shifted the result included prolonged debris clearance, additional mechanical failures clustering on track, or adverse conditions forcing marshals to deploy the car for extended recovery.