Latest National Weather Service and model guidance for July 31 point to a high near 80–86°F in New York City under partly to mostly cloudy skies with a modest chance of showers, establishing the primary driver behind trader consensus. Following an intense mid-July heat wave that produced 98–100°F readings, atmospheric conditions have shifted toward cooler, more stable air with northerly flow and limited moisture, keeping temperatures well below seasonal extremes. Market-implied odds concentrate on the 82–87°F bins as these align closely with ensemble means and climatological norms for late July, while lower and higher tails reflect uncertainty in cloud cover and any late-day heating. Updated forecast discussions and morning model runs on July 30 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à New York le 31 juillet ?
La température la plus élevée à New York le 31 juillet ?
84-85°F 39%
82-83°F 25%
86-87°F 22%
78-79°F 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 juil. 2026
75°F or below
1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
8%
80-81°F
8%
82-83°F
25%
84-85°F
39%
86-87°F
22%
88-89°F
7%
90-91°F
3%
92-93°F
2%
94°F or higher
1%
84-85°F 39%
82-83°F 25%
86-87°F 22%
78-79°F 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 juil. 2026
75°F or below
$5 Vol.
1%
76-77°F
$25 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$42 Vol.
8%
80-81°F
$46 Vol.
8%
82-83°F
$13 Vol.
25%
84-85°F
$59 Vol.
39%
86-87°F
$19 Vol.
22%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
7%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
3%
92-93°F
$20 Vol.
2%
94°F or higher
$20 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and model guidance for July 31 point to a high near 80–86°F in New York City under partly to mostly cloudy skies with a modest chance of showers, establishing the primary driver behind trader consensus. Following an intense mid-July heat wave that produced 98–100°F readings, atmospheric conditions have shifted toward cooler, more stable air with northerly flow and limited moisture, keeping temperatures well below seasonal extremes. Market-implied odds concentrate on the 82–87°F bins as these align closely with ensemble means and climatological norms for late July, while lower and higher tails reflect uncertainty in cloud cover and any late-day heating. Updated forecast discussions and morning model runs on July 30 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 29, 2026, 10:02 PM ET
Volume
$249Date de fin
31 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 10:02 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and model guidance for July 31 point to a high near 80–86°F in New York City under partly to mostly cloudy skies with a modest chance of showers, establishing the primary driver behind trader consensus. Following an intense mid-July heat wave that produced 98–100°F readings, atmospheric conditions have shifted toward cooler, more stable air with northerly flow and limited moisture, keeping temperatures well below seasonal extremes. Market-implied odds concentrate on the 82–87°F bins as these align closely with ensemble means and climatological norms for late July, while lower and higher tails reflect uncertainty in cloud cover and any late-day heating. Updated forecast discussions and morning model runs on July 30 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$249Date de fin
31 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 10:02 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service and model guidance for July 31 point to a high near 80–86°F in New York City under partly to mostly cloudy skies with a modest chance of showers, establishing the primary driver behind trader consensus. Following an intense mid-July heat wave that produced 98–100°F readings, atmospheric conditions have shifted toward cooler, more stable air with northerly flow and limited moisture, keeping temperatures well below seasonal extremes. Market-implied odds concentrate on the 82–87°F bins as these align closely with ensemble means and climatological norms for late July, while lower and higher tails reflect uncertainty in cloud cover and any late-day heating. Updated forecast discussions and morning model runs on July 30 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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