The closely matched probabilities around the 0-200k ranges for June nonfarm payrolls reflect trader uncertainty amid softening labor market signals, including recent declines in jobless claims and mixed readings from private payroll surveys. Leading indicators such as the ISM manufacturing employment component and wage growth trends suggest hiring has cooled below the 150k monthly average seen in prior expansions, while the Federal Reserve's dual mandate keeps focus on whether further moderation could influence the policy path. The subdued odds on a negative print highlight the economy's underlying resilience, but the next CPI release and retail sales data could refine the distribution ahead of the early-July report.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour0 – 50k 44%
50 000 – 100 000 43%
200k+ 43%
150k – 200k 36%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 juil. 2026
<0
11%
0 – 50k
44%
50 000 – 100 000
43%
100 000 – 150 000
37%
150k – 200k
36%
200k+
43%
0 – 50k 44%
50 000 – 100 000 43%
200k+ 43%
150k – 200k 36%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 juil. 2026
<0
$51 Vol.
11%
0 – 50k
$41 Vol.
44%
50 000 – 100 000
$0 Vol.
43%
100 000 – 150 000
$40 Vol.
37%
150k – 200k
$0 Vol.
36%
200k+
$0 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for June 2026, scheduled to be released on July 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmThe closely matched probabilities around the 0-200k ranges for June nonfarm payrolls reflect trader uncertainty amid softening labor market signals, including recent declines in jobless claims and mixed readings from private payroll surveys. Leading indicators such as the ISM manufacturing employment component and wage growth trends suggest hiring has cooled below the 150k monthly average seen in prior expansions, while the Federal Reserve's dual mandate keeps focus on whether further moderation could influence the policy path. The subdued odds on a negative print highlight the economy's underlying resilience, but the next CPI release and retail sales data could refine the distribution ahead of the early-July report.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for June 2026, scheduled to be released on July 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Marché ouvert : Jun 5, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Volume
$132Date de fin
3 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 5, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for June 2026, scheduled to be released on July 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmThe closely matched probabilities around the 0-200k ranges for June nonfarm payrolls reflect trader uncertainty amid softening labor market signals, including recent declines in jobless claims and mixed readings from private payroll surveys. Leading indicators such as the ISM manufacturing employment component and wage growth trends suggest hiring has cooled below the 150k monthly average seen in prior expansions, while the Federal Reserve's dual mandate keeps focus on whether further moderation could influence the policy path. The subdued odds on a negative print highlight the economy's underlying resilience, but the next CPI release and retail sales data could refine the distribution ahead of the early-July report.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for June 2026, scheduled to be released on July 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Volume
$132Date de fin
3 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 5, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities around the 0-200k ranges for June nonfarm payrolls reflect trader uncertainty amid softening labor market signals, including recent declines in jobless claims and mixed readings from private payroll surveys. Leading indicators such as the ISM manufacturing employment component and wage growth trends suggest hiring has cooled below the 150k monthly average seen in prior expansions, while the Federal Reserve's dual mandate keeps focus on whether further moderation could influence the policy path. The subdued odds on a negative print highlight the economy's underlying resilience, but the next CPI release and retail sales data could refine the distribution ahead of the early-July report.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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