Iran's Supreme Leader position underwent a major transition in March 2026 after Ali Khamenei's assassination on February 28 triggered an Assembly of Experts election, resulting in Mojtaba Khamenei's selection as successor. Trader probabilities for additional near-term change reflect ongoing regional conflict with the United States and Israel, reports of Mojtaba's limited public role and possible health issues since sustaining injuries, and domestic pressures including economic strain and internal political divisions. Recent ceasefires have not resolved underlying tensions, with Iran pursuing calibrated escalation strategies amid stalled diplomacy. Upcoming factors include any renewed military actions, health disclosures, or Assembly of Experts proceedings that could accelerate further succession dynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$22,465,029 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
31 août
2%
30 septembre
6%
31 décembre
16%
30 juin 2027
23%
$22,465,029 Vol.
31 août
$649,965 Vol.
2%
30 septembre
$329,296 Vol.
6%
31 décembre
$3,748,705 Vol.
16%
30 juin 2027
$190,686 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader position underwent a major transition in March 2026 after Ali Khamenei's assassination on February 28 triggered an Assembly of Experts election, resulting in Mojtaba Khamenei's selection as successor. Trader probabilities for additional near-term change reflect ongoing regional conflict with the United States and Israel, reports of Mojtaba's limited public role and possible health issues since sustaining injuries, and domestic pressures including economic strain and internal political divisions. Recent ceasefires have not resolved underlying tensions, with Iran pursuing calibrated escalation strategies amid stalled diplomacy. Upcoming factors include any renewed military actions, health disclosures, or Assembly of Experts proceedings that could accelerate further succession dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
Volume
$22,465,029Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader position underwent a major transition in March 2026 after Ali Khamenei's assassination on February 28 triggered an Assembly of Experts election, resulting in Mojtaba Khamenei's selection as successor. Trader probabilities for additional near-term change reflect ongoing regional conflict with the United States and Israel, reports of Mojtaba's limited public role and possible health issues since sustaining injuries, and domestic pressures including economic strain and internal political divisions. Recent ceasefires have not resolved underlying tensions, with Iran pursuing calibrated escalation strategies amid stalled diplomacy. Upcoming factors include any renewed military actions, health disclosures, or Assembly of Experts proceedings that could accelerate further succession dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$22,465,029Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's Supreme Leader position underwent a major transition in March 2026 after Ali Khamenei's assassination on February 28 triggered an Assembly of Experts election, resulting in Mojtaba Khamenei's selection as successor. Trader probabilities for additional near-term change reflect ongoing regional conflict with the United States and Israel, reports of Mojtaba's limited public role and possible health issues since sustaining injuries, and domestic pressures including economic strain and internal political divisions. Recent ceasefires have not resolved underlying tensions, with Iran pursuing calibrated escalation strategies amid stalled diplomacy. Upcoming factors include any renewed military actions, health disclosures, or Assembly of Experts proceedings that could accelerate further succession dynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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