Iran's political system has demonstrated continuity following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in a February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strike, with the Assembly of Experts electing his son Mojtaba as successor in early March. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has maintained institutional control through security measures amid economic strain and limited protests, enabling a managed transition rather than fragmentation or collapse. Mojtaba Khamenei has remained largely out of public view due to reported injuries, with decision-making involving interim figures and back-channel diplomacy. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low near-term probabilities for further leadership change, as core structures like the Supreme Leader office and clerical oversight have persisted without verified elite defections or coordinated opposition capable of rapid overthrow. Ongoing negotiations and sanctions dynamics represent the main variables that could influence future odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$23,589,109 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
22 août
<1%
31 août
1%
30 septembre
5%
31 octobre
8%
30 novembre
12%
31 décembre
17%
30 juin 2027
26%
$23,589,109 Vol.
22 août
$57,258 Vol.
<1%
31 août
$1,171,484 Vol.
1%
30 septembre
$464,067 Vol.
5%
31 octobre
$13,961 Vol.
8%
30 novembre
$11,497 Vol.
12%
31 décembre
$4,024,911 Vol.
17%
30 juin 2027
$237,739 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's political system has demonstrated continuity following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in a February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strike, with the Assembly of Experts electing his son Mojtaba as successor in early March. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has maintained institutional control through security measures amid economic strain and limited protests, enabling a managed transition rather than fragmentation or collapse. Mojtaba Khamenei has remained largely out of public view due to reported injuries, with decision-making involving interim figures and back-channel diplomacy. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low near-term probabilities for further leadership change, as core structures like the Supreme Leader office and clerical oversight have persisted without verified elite defections or coordinated opposition capable of rapid overthrow. Ongoing negotiations and sanctions dynamics represent the main variables that could influence future odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ET
Volume
$23,589,109Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's political system has demonstrated continuity following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in a February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strike, with the Assembly of Experts electing his son Mojtaba as successor in early March. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has maintained institutional control through security measures amid economic strain and limited protests, enabling a managed transition rather than fragmentation or collapse. Mojtaba Khamenei has remained largely out of public view due to reported injuries, with decision-making involving interim figures and back-channel diplomacy. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low near-term probabilities for further leadership change, as core structures like the Supreme Leader office and clerical oversight have persisted without verified elite defections or coordinated opposition capable of rapid overthrow. Ongoing negotiations and sanctions dynamics represent the main variables that could influence future odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$23,589,109Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's political system has demonstrated continuity following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in a February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strike, with the Assembly of Experts electing his son Mojtaba as successor in early March. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has maintained institutional control through security measures amid economic strain and limited protests, enabling a managed transition rather than fragmentation or collapse. Mojtaba Khamenei has remained largely out of public view due to reported injuries, with decision-making involving interim figures and back-channel diplomacy. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low near-term probabilities for further leadership change, as core structures like the Supreme Leader office and clerical oversight have persisted without verified elite defections or coordinated opposition capable of rapid overthrow. Ongoing negotiations and sanctions dynamics represent the main variables that could influence future odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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