Recent short-term forecasts from global and regional models place Chengdu’s August 24 minimum temperature near 23–25 °C, with ensemble spreads creating the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 25 °C, 20 °C or below, and adjacent bins. Primary drivers include persistent East Asian monsoon moisture that sustains high humidity and limits nocturnal radiative cooling, combined with variable cloud cover and light showers that further moderate temperature drops. Historical climatology shows typical late-August lows near 22–24 °C, while current steering patterns and boundary-layer conditions favor modest warming relative to that baseline. Updated model runs and next-day observational data from regional meteorological agencies will likely refine these probabilities as the event approaches.