**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 1 heavily favors 28°C (55.5% implied probability) and 27°C (30.5%), reflecting typical early-July nocturnal conditions under above-normal seasonal warmth.** Hong Kong’s summer climate features persistent high humidity and weak diurnal cooling, with historical July mean minimum temperatures around 26–27°C and daily lows rarely dropping below 25°C absent unusual synoptic influences. The Hong Kong Observatory’s June–August 2026 seasonal outlook projects above-normal temperatures, consistent with long-term warming trends and current multi-model guidance showing overnight lows in the 26–28°C range. Short-term forecasts through early July indicate mainly cloudy skies with scattered showers or thunderstorms but no significant cold advection or strong northerly flow that would suppress minima. Resolution depends on the official observatory reading at the Hong Kong Observatory headquarters; any late-model shift toward enhanced cloud cover or rainfall could nudge probabilities toward 27°C, while clearer conditions would reinforce the 28°C consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 1?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 1?
28°C 42%
27°C 33%
26°C 19%
22°C or below 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 juil. 2026
22°C or below
12%
23°C
3%
24°C
5%
25°C
8%
26°C
19%
27°C
33%
28°C
55%
29°C
6%
30°C
3%
31°C
5%
32°C or higher
2%
28°C 42%
27°C 33%
26°C 19%
22°C or below 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 juil. 2026
22°C or below
$232 Vol.
12%
23°C
$46 Vol.
3%
24°C
$0 Vol.
5%
25°C
$0 Vol.
8%
26°C
$0 Vol.
19%
27°C
$23 Vol.
33%
28°C
$67 Vol.
55%
29°C
$0 Vol.
6%
30°C
$16 Vol.
3%
31°C
$61 Vol.
5%
32°C or higher
$68 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 1 heavily favors 28°C (55.5% implied probability) and 27°C (30.5%), reflecting typical early-July nocturnal conditions under above-normal seasonal warmth.**
Hong Kong’s summer climate features persistent high humidity and weak diurnal cooling, with historical July mean minimum temperatures around 26–27°C and daily lows rarely dropping below 25°C absent unusual synoptic influences. The Hong Kong Observatory’s June–August 2026 seasonal outlook projects above-normal temperatures, consistent with long-term warming trends and current multi-model guidance showing overnight lows in the 26–28°C range. Short-term forecasts through early July indicate mainly cloudy skies with scattered showers or thunderstorms but no significant cold advection or strong northerly flow that would suppress minima. Resolution depends on the official observatory reading at the Hong Kong Observatory headquarters; any late-model shift toward enhanced cloud cover or rainfall could nudge probabilities toward 27°C, while clearer conditions would reinforce the 28°C consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jun 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$446Date de fin
1 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 1 heavily favors 28°C (55.5% implied probability) and 27°C (30.5%), reflecting typical early-July nocturnal conditions under above-normal seasonal warmth.**
Hong Kong’s summer climate features persistent high humidity and weak diurnal cooling, with historical July mean minimum temperatures around 26–27°C and daily lows rarely dropping below 25°C absent unusual synoptic influences. The Hong Kong Observatory’s June–August 2026 seasonal outlook projects above-normal temperatures, consistent with long-term warming trends and current multi-model guidance showing overnight lows in the 26–28°C range. Short-term forecasts through early July indicate mainly cloudy skies with scattered showers or thunderstorms but no significant cold advection or strong northerly flow that would suppress minima. Resolution depends on the official observatory reading at the Hong Kong Observatory headquarters; any late-model shift toward enhanced cloud cover or rainfall could nudge probabilities toward 27°C, while clearer conditions would reinforce the 28°C consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$446Date de fin
1 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 1 heavily favors 28°C (55.5% implied probability) and 27°C (30.5%), reflecting typical early-July nocturnal conditions under above-normal seasonal warmth.** Hong Kong’s summer climate features persistent high humidity and weak diurnal cooling, with historical July mean minimum temperatures around 26–27°C and daily lows rarely dropping below 25°C absent unusual synoptic influences. The Hong Kong Observatory’s June–August 2026 seasonal outlook projects above-normal temperatures, consistent with long-term warming trends and current multi-model guidance showing overnight lows in the 26–28°C range. Short-term forecasts through early July indicate mainly cloudy skies with scattered showers or thunderstorms but no significant cold advection or strong northerly flow that would suppress minima. Resolution depends on the official observatory reading at the Hong Kong Observatory headquarters; any late-model shift toward enhanced cloud cover or rainfall could nudge probabilities toward 27°C, while clearer conditions would reinforce the 28°C consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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