Recent Météo-France and ECMWF ensemble guidance for the Paris region points to a persistent warm air mass with overnight lows near 20–22°C on July 12, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 21–23°C. Light winds, limited cloud cover, and elevated dew points are expected to moderate nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping the minimum above the historical early-July average of roughly 15–16°C. Small differences in the leading outcomes hinge on forecast details such as exact timing of any thin high clouds, subtle shifts in boundary-layer mixing, or minor adjustments in 850 hPa temperatures within the next 48-hour model runs. Traders are weighting the consensus central tendency while acknowledging that a single updated ensemble could easily shift probabilities among the 21–23°C bins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Paris le 12 juillet ?
La température la plus basse à Paris le 12 juillet ?
22°C 41%
23°C 26%
21°C ou moins 25%
24°C 13%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
12 juil. 2026
21°C ou moins
25%
22°C
41%
23°C
26%
24°C
13%
25°C
3%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C ou plus
<1%
22°C 41%
23°C 26%
21°C ou moins 25%
24°C 13%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
12 juil. 2026
21°C ou moins
$15 Vol.
25%
22°C
$101 Vol.
41%
23°C
$10 Vol.
26%
24°C
$11 Vol.
13%
25°C
$28 Vol.
3%
26°C
$500 Vol.
1%
27°C
$212 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$197 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$72 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$172 Vol.
<1%
31°C ou plus
$664 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Météo-France and ECMWF ensemble guidance for the Paris region points to a persistent warm air mass with overnight lows near 20–22°C on July 12, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 21–23°C. Light winds, limited cloud cover, and elevated dew points are expected to moderate nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping the minimum above the historical early-July average of roughly 15–16°C. Small differences in the leading outcomes hinge on forecast details such as exact timing of any thin high clouds, subtle shifts in boundary-layer mixing, or minor adjustments in 850 hPa temperatures within the next 48-hour model runs. Traders are weighting the consensus central tendency while acknowledging that a single updated ensemble could easily shift probabilities among the 21–23°C bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,982Date de fin
12 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Météo-France and ECMWF ensemble guidance for the Paris region points to a persistent warm air mass with overnight lows near 20–22°C on July 12, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 21–23°C. Light winds, limited cloud cover, and elevated dew points are expected to moderate nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping the minimum above the historical early-July average of roughly 15–16°C. Small differences in the leading outcomes hinge on forecast details such as exact timing of any thin high clouds, subtle shifts in boundary-layer mixing, or minor adjustments in 850 hPa temperatures within the next 48-hour model runs. Traders are weighting the consensus central tendency while acknowledging that a single updated ensemble could easily shift probabilities among the 21–23°C bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,982Date de fin
12 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Météo-France and ECMWF ensemble guidance for the Paris region points to a persistent warm air mass with overnight lows near 20–22°C on July 12, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 21–23°C. Light winds, limited cloud cover, and elevated dew points are expected to moderate nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping the minimum above the historical early-July average of roughly 15–16°C. Small differences in the leading outcomes hinge on forecast details such as exact timing of any thin high clouds, subtle shifts in boundary-layer mixing, or minor adjustments in 850 hPa temperatures within the next 48-hour model runs. Traders are weighting the consensus central tendency while acknowledging that a single updated ensemble could easily shift probabilities among the 21–23°C bins.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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