Netflix’s own Q2 2026 guidance of a 32.6% operating margin, issued after Q1 results beat estimates on revenue growth of 16%, anchors trader sentiment for the July 16 earnings release. Higher first-half content amortization, foreign-exchange headwinds, and modest international subscriber momentum offset gains from advertising revenue roughly doubling and pricing actions, keeping full-year margin targets at 31.5%. With outcomes clustered near guidance, the evenly matched probabilities reflect uncertainty around whether actual membership trends, ad-tier adoption, and operating leverage will push results into the 32–34% range or toward lower or higher brackets. Market-implied odds treat the outcome as finely balanced pending confirmation of these execution variables.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour34%-36% 42%
32 %-34 % 40%
<30% 24%
30%-32% 24%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 juil. 2026
<30%
24%
30%-32%
24%
32 %-34 %
40%
34%-36%
42%
Plus de 36 %
24%
34%-36% 42%
32 %-34 % 40%
<30% 24%
30%-32% 24%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 juil. 2026
<30%
$57 Vol.
24%
30%-32%
$56 Vol.
24%
32 %-34 %
$0 Vol.
40%
34%-36%
$0 Vol.
42%
Plus de 36 %
$57 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to Netflix's operating margin for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is Netflix's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.Netflix’s own Q2 2026 guidance of a 32.6% operating margin, issued after Q1 results beat estimates on revenue growth of 16%, anchors trader sentiment for the July 16 earnings release. Higher first-half content amortization, foreign-exchange headwinds, and modest international subscriber momentum offset gains from advertising revenue roughly doubling and pricing actions, keeping full-year margin targets at 31.5%. With outcomes clustered near guidance, the evenly matched probabilities reflect uncertainty around whether actual membership trends, ad-tier adoption, and operating leverage will push results into the 32–34% range or toward lower or higher brackets. Market-implied odds treat the outcome as finely balanced pending confirmation of these execution variables.
This market will resolve according to Netflix's operating margin for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is Netflix's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is Netflix's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jun 19, 2026, 11:44 AM ET
Volume
$170Date de fin
16 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 19, 2026, 11:44 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Netflix's operating margin for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is Netflix's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.Netflix’s own Q2 2026 guidance of a 32.6% operating margin, issued after Q1 results beat estimates on revenue growth of 16%, anchors trader sentiment for the July 16 earnings release. Higher first-half content amortization, foreign-exchange headwinds, and modest international subscriber momentum offset gains from advertising revenue roughly doubling and pricing actions, keeping full-year margin targets at 31.5%. With outcomes clustered near guidance, the evenly matched probabilities reflect uncertainty around whether actual membership trends, ad-tier adoption, and operating leverage will push results into the 32–34% range or toward lower or higher brackets. Market-implied odds treat the outcome as finely balanced pending confirmation of these execution variables.
This market will resolve according to Netflix's operating margin for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is Netflix's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is Netflix's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Volume
$170Date de fin
16 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 19, 2026, 11:44 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Netflix’s own Q2 2026 guidance of a 32.6% operating margin, issued after Q1 results beat estimates on revenue growth of 16%, anchors trader sentiment for the July 16 earnings release. Higher first-half content amortization, foreign-exchange headwinds, and modest international subscriber momentum offset gains from advertising revenue roughly doubling and pricing actions, keeping full-year margin targets at 31.5%. With outcomes clustered near guidance, the evenly matched probabilities reflect uncertainty around whether actual membership trends, ad-tier adoption, and operating leverage will push results into the 32–34% range or toward lower or higher brackets. Market-implied odds treat the outcome as finely balanced pending confirmation of these execution variables.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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