Recent polling declines have left the CAQ projected for low single-digit seats in Quebec’s October 5 general election, with models from 338Canada and The Writ placing its likely haul between roughly 0 and 12 amid wide simulation ranges. Three late-September surveys showed the party’s support falling to 16-19 percent after the leaders’ debates, shifting it to third or fourth place behind the PQ at 30 percent and allowing the Liberals and Conservatives to gain ground. This volatility, concentrated in francophone ridings where the CAQ once dominated, sustains tight market pricing across outcomes of zero through five or more seats. Final results will hinge on whether late voter shifts or regional turnout patterns push the party above or below the narrow thresholds currently implied by trader consensus.