Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which began in late February 2026, continue to suppress Strait of Hormuz traffic to roughly 5-10% of pre-conflict norms, with daily transits often in the single digits amid naval blockades, reported mine threats, and Iranian restrictions. This sustained disruption, confirmed by Lloyd’s List and Kpler data through early May, has kept oil and LNG flows severely constrained, elevating tanker rates and global energy price volatility. Traders price in limited near-term normalization given the absence of verified diplomatic breakthroughs or full de-escalation, with industry estimates indicating that even an immediate reopening would require months for volumes and logistics to stabilize. Key near-term catalysts include potential FOMC signals on inflation pass-through from energy costs and any updates on U.S. maritime enforcement actions.