Trader consensus favoring no Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 66% implied probability stems from mid-April reports indicating Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, the court's oldest members at 77 and 76, have no plans to retire this year, with Alito already hiring clerks for the 2027 term. Earlier speculation, fueled by President Trump's comments on potential nominees and Alito's brief health checkup, has cooled amid sources close to the justices confirming their intent to stay. No liberal justices like Sonia Sotomayor face retirement pressure soon, and lifetime appointments historically lead to strategic timing rather than abrupt exits, absent unforeseen health events or rulings. Midterm elections in November could influence future dynamics but do not alter current positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus favoring no Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 66% implied probability stems from mid-April reports indicating Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, the court's oldest members at 77 and 76, have no plans to retire this year, with Alito already hiring clerks for the 2027 term. Earlier speculation, fueled by President Trump's comments on potential nominees and Alito's brief health checkup, has cooled amid sources close to the justices confirming their intent to stay. No liberal justices like Sonia Sotomayor face retirement pressure soon, and lifetime appointments historically lead to strategic timing rather than abrupt exits, absent unforeseen health events or rulings. Midterm elections in November could influence future dynamics but do not alter current positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET
Volume
$4,521Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus favoring no Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 66% implied probability stems from mid-April reports indicating Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, the court's oldest members at 77 and 76, have no plans to retire this year, with Alito already hiring clerks for the 2027 term. Earlier speculation, fueled by President Trump's comments on potential nominees and Alito's brief health checkup, has cooled amid sources close to the justices confirming their intent to stay. No liberal justices like Sonia Sotomayor face retirement pressure soon, and lifetime appointments historically lead to strategic timing rather than abrupt exits, absent unforeseen health events or rulings. Midterm elections in November could influence future dynamics but do not alter current positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,521Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring no Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 66% implied probability stems from mid-April reports indicating Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, the court's oldest members at 77 and 76, have no plans to retire this year, with Alito already hiring clerks for the 2027 term. Earlier speculation, fueled by President Trump's comments on potential nominees and Alito's brief health checkup, has cooled amid sources close to the justices confirming their intent to stay. No liberal justices like Sonia Sotomayor face retirement pressure soon, and lifetime appointments historically lead to strategic timing rather than abrupt exits, absent unforeseen health events or rulings. Midterm elections in November could influence future dynamics but do not alter current positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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