**No Supreme Court vacancy is expected in 2026, with traders assigning a 76% probability to that outcome.** The two oldest justices—Samuel Alito (76) and Clarence Thomas (78)—have signaled continued service. Alito confirmed in an August 2026 Wall Street Journal interview that he is “here for another term,” after hiring clerks for the October 2026–June 2027 term and rejecting retirement rumors. Thomas has shown no departure plans, with reports indicating clerk hires extending further. The other seven justices are younger and have issued no signals of retirement. No health events or official announcements have emerged to alter this outlook, and the typical end-of-term retirement window in June/July 2026 passed without action. These developments, combined with the justices’ demonstrated longevity and the absence of vacancies as of mid-September 2026, underpin the market’s assessment that the bench will stay intact through December 31.