Recent reports from sources close to Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito indicate neither plans to retire before the end of 2026, with Alito already hiring clerks for the 2027 term. These updates have reinforced trader expectations that the current nine-member court will remain intact through the year. Earlier speculation in April around potential openings, fueled by President Trump’s public comments on future appointments, prompted brief market movement but has since faded without formal announcements or health developments. No other justices show signs of departure, and historical patterns of infrequent vacancies at this stage of a term further support the current implied probability favoring no change.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent reports from sources close to Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito indicate neither plans to retire before the end of 2026, with Alito already hiring clerks for the 2027 term. These updates have reinforced trader expectations that the current nine-member court will remain intact through the year. Earlier speculation in April around potential openings, fueled by President Trump’s public comments on future appointments, prompted brief market movement but has since faded without formal announcements or health developments. No other justices show signs of departure, and historical patterns of infrequent vacancies at this stage of a term further support the current implied probability favoring no change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET
Volume
$4,522Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent reports from sources close to Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito indicate neither plans to retire before the end of 2026, with Alito already hiring clerks for the 2027 term. These updates have reinforced trader expectations that the current nine-member court will remain intact through the year. Earlier speculation in April around potential openings, fueled by President Trump’s public comments on future appointments, prompted brief market movement but has since faded without formal announcements or health developments. No other justices show signs of departure, and historical patterns of infrequent vacancies at this stage of a term further support the current implied probability favoring no change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,522Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent reports from sources close to Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito indicate neither plans to retire before the end of 2026, with Alito already hiring clerks for the 2027 term. These updates have reinforced trader expectations that the current nine-member court will remain intact through the year. Earlier speculation in April around potential openings, fueled by President Trump’s public comments on future appointments, prompted brief market movement but has since faded without formal announcements or health developments. No other justices show signs of departure, and historical patterns of infrequent vacancies at this stage of a term further support the current implied probability favoring no change.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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