Ukraine's leadership under President Zelensky maintains firm control over key institutions and the military amid the ongoing conflict with Russia, with no verified reports of coordinated internal challenges or factional defections in recent months. Western military and financial support continues without interruption, reinforcing institutional stability and limiting opportunities for rapid shifts in power. Traders assign a 96.5 percent implied probability to no coup attempt by June 30 because historical patterns show coups require broad elite defections or battlefield collapses that have not materialized. Realistic scenarios that could still alter this assessment include a sudden major military reversal on the front lines or an unforeseen domestic crisis triggering elite realignment, though both remain low-probability events within the narrow timeframe.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$12,266 Vol.
$12,266 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Oui
$12,266 Vol.
$12,266 Vol.
30 juin 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ukraine's leadership under President Zelensky maintains firm control over key institutions and the military amid the ongoing conflict with Russia, with no verified reports of coordinated internal challenges or factional defections in recent months. Western military and financial support continues without interruption, reinforcing institutional stability and limiting opportunities for rapid shifts in power. Traders assign a 96.5 percent implied probability to no coup attempt by June 30 because historical patterns show coups require broad elite defections or battlefield collapses that have not materialized. Realistic scenarios that could still alter this assessment include a sudden major military reversal on the front lines or an unforeseen domestic crisis triggering elite realignment, though both remain low-probability events within the narrow timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Dec 29, 2025, 4:46 PM ET
Volume
$12,266Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ukraine's leadership under President Zelensky maintains firm control over key institutions and the military amid the ongoing conflict with Russia, with no verified reports of coordinated internal challenges or factional defections in recent months. Western military and financial support continues without interruption, reinforcing institutional stability and limiting opportunities for rapid shifts in power. Traders assign a 96.5 percent implied probability to no coup attempt by June 30 because historical patterns show coups require broad elite defections or battlefield collapses that have not materialized. Realistic scenarios that could still alter this assessment include a sudden major military reversal on the front lines or an unforeseen domestic crisis triggering elite realignment, though both remain low-probability events within the narrow timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$12,266Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2025, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine's leadership under President Zelensky maintains firm control over key institutions and the military amid the ongoing conflict with Russia, with no verified reports of coordinated internal challenges or factional defections in recent months. Western military and financial support continues without interruption, reinforcing institutional stability and limiting opportunities for rapid shifts in power. Traders assign a 96.5 percent implied probability to no coup attempt by June 30 because historical patterns show coups require broad elite defections or battlefield collapses that have not materialized. Realistic scenarios that could still alter this assessment include a sudden major military reversal on the front lines or an unforeseen domestic crisis triggering elite realignment, though both remain low-probability events within the narrow timeframe.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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