Recent small-bank failures—five so far in 2026, including Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank on August 21—have kept the market-implied odds for at least one U.S. bank failure by year-end near even. Persistent pressures from commercial real estate losses, elevated interest rates, and rising delinquencies continue to strain community lenders, as evidenced by the FDIC’s expanding problem-bank list reaching 52 institutions. Large-bank stress tests confirm system-wide resilience, with aggregate CET1 ratios remaining well above requirements, but smaller institutions face higher Texas ratios and capital constraints. Traders weigh the established 2026 failure pace against the low historical baseline and limited systemic spillovers, producing balanced pricing ahead of further quarterly data and potential regulatory actions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
67% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
67% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Recent small-bank failures—five so far in 2026, including Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank on August 21—have kept the market-implied odds for at least one U.S. bank failure by year-end near even. Persistent pressures from commercial real estate losses, elevated interest rates, and rising delinquencies continue to strain community lenders, as evidenced by the FDIC’s expanding problem-bank list reaching 52 institutions. Large-bank stress tests confirm system-wide resilience, with aggregate CET1 ratios remaining well above requirements, but smaller institutions face higher Texas ratios and capital constraints. Traders weigh the established 2026 failure pace against the low historical baseline and limited systemic spillovers, producing balanced pricing ahead of further quarterly data and potential regulatory actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Marché ouvert : Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Volume
$84Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Recent small-bank failures—five so far in 2026, including Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank on August 21—have kept the market-implied odds for at least one U.S. bank failure by year-end near even. Persistent pressures from commercial real estate losses, elevated interest rates, and rising delinquencies continue to strain community lenders, as evidenced by the FDIC’s expanding problem-bank list reaching 52 institutions. Large-bank stress tests confirm system-wide resilience, with aggregate CET1 ratios remaining well above requirements, but smaller institutions face higher Texas ratios and capital constraints. Traders weigh the established 2026 failure pace against the low historical baseline and limited systemic spillovers, producing balanced pricing ahead of further quarterly data and potential regulatory actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Volume
$84Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent small-bank failures—five so far in 2026, including Tioga-Franklin Savings Bank on August 21—have kept the market-implied odds for at least one U.S. bank failure by year-end near even. Persistent pressures from commercial real estate losses, elevated interest rates, and rising delinquencies continue to strain community lenders, as evidenced by the FDIC’s expanding problem-bank list reaching 52 institutions. Large-bank stress tests confirm system-wide resilience, with aggregate CET1 ratios remaining well above requirements, but smaller institutions face higher Texas ratios and capital constraints. Traders weigh the established 2026 failure pace against the low historical baseline and limited systemic spillovers, producing balanced pricing ahead of further quarterly data and potential regulatory actions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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