Anthropic’s Claude family maintains a decisive edge in independent benchmarks and leaderboards as of August 2026, driving the 86.5% market-implied probability it will hold the #1 AI model by end of October. Multiple Claude variants, including Opus 5 and Fable 5, lead or cluster at the top of Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, BenchAlign scores, coding agentic evaluations, and Arena-style rankings following the July 24 release of Opus 5 at competitive $5/$25 pricing. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and Google’s Gemini variants trail noticeably on the same metrics, keeping their implied probabilities below 4%. With roughly two months remaining and no confirmed rival releases on the immediate horizon, traders see limited scope for a sudden reversal before the resolution window closes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 87%
Google 3.9%
OpenAI 3.5%
Meta 3.2%
$10,699 Vol.
$10,699 Vol.

Anthropic
87%

4%

OpenAI
4%

Meta
3%

Alibaba
3%

Moonshot
1%

Z.ai
1%

Tencent
1%

Microsoft
1%

SpaceXAI
1%

ByteDance
1%

Meituan
1%

DeepSeek
<1%

StepFun
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Nvidia
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

Thinky
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Amazon
<1%
Anthropic 87%
Google 3.9%
OpenAI 3.5%
Meta 3.2%
$10,699 Vol.
$10,699 Vol.

Anthropic
87%

4%

OpenAI
4%

Meta
3%

Alibaba
3%

Moonshot
1%

Z.ai
1%

Tencent
1%

Microsoft
1%

SpaceXAI
1%

ByteDance
1%

Meituan
1%

DeepSeek
<1%

StepFun
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Nvidia
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

Thinky
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Amazon
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude family maintains a decisive edge in independent benchmarks and leaderboards as of August 2026, driving the 86.5% market-implied probability it will hold the #1 AI model by end of October. Multiple Claude variants, including Opus 5 and Fable 5, lead or cluster at the top of Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, BenchAlign scores, coding agentic evaluations, and Arena-style rankings following the July 24 release of Opus 5 at competitive $5/$25 pricing. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and Google’s Gemini variants trail noticeably on the same metrics, keeping their implied probabilities below 4%. With roughly two months remaining and no confirmed rival releases on the immediate horizon, traders see limited scope for a sudden reversal before the resolution window closes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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