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Politique·James Comey

Qui sera arrêté avant 2027 ?

icon for Qui sera arrêté avant 2027 ?
Politique·James Comey

Qui sera arrêté avant 2027 ?

$357,509 Vol.

Polymarket

$357,509 Vol.

Polymarket

Anthony Fauci

$128,544 Vol.

13%

John Brennan

$18,168 Vol.

29%

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero

$21,642 Vol.

23%

Adam Schiff

$16,394 Vol.

3%

Barack Obama

$28,484 Vol.

1%

James Comey

$9,601 Vol.

8%

Mahmoud Khalil

$1,278 Vol.

30%

James Clapper

$6,706 Vol.

14%

Letitia James

$2,821 Vol.

13%

Hillary Clinton

$25,009 Vol.

3%

Bill Clinton

$2,008 Vol.

3%

Loretta Lynch

$2,376 Vol.

11%

Susan Rice

$304 Vol.

9%

Candace Owens

$263 Vol.

6%

Gavin Newsom

$37,141 Vol.

3%

Benjamin Netanyahu

$1,789 Vol.

5%

John Kerry

$346 Vol.

3%

Pam Bondi

$1,998 Vol.

3%

Tom Homan

$39,428 Vol.

11%

Kash Patel

$530 Vol.

3%

Brandon Johnson

$3,174 Vol.

8%

Lisa Cook

$3,218 Vol.

10%

Lee Jun-seok

$794 Vol.

11%

Joe Biden

$5,538 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus in the "Who will be arrested before 2027" market centers on ongoing Department of Justice investigations into former intelligence and political figures, with Mahmoud Khalil priced highest amid his prior 2025 ICE detention tied to campus activism and immigration status. John Brennan trails as active probes examine his congressional statements on the 2016 Russia assessment, including recent grand jury subpoenas, FBI interviews with CIA personnel, and leadership changes in the Miami U.S. Attorney's office that have sustained momentum despite earlier prosecutorial doubts. Similar scrutiny of Anthony Fauci, James Comey, and others stems from parallel reviews of prior official conduct, while lower-priced names like Adam Schiff and Barack Obama reflect thinner evidentiary trails. Upcoming court rulings, congressional testimony demands, and any shifts in enforcement priorities within the resolution window could alter implied probabilities across these outcomes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$357,509
Marché ouvert
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus in the "Who will be arrested before 2027" market centers on ongoing Department of Justice investigations into former intelligence and political figures, with Mahmoud Khalil priced highest amid his prior 2025 ICE detention tied to campus activism and immigration status. John Brennan trails as active probes examine his congressional statements on the 2016 Russia assessment, including recent grand jury subpoenas, FBI interviews with CIA personnel, and leadership changes in the Miami U.S. Attorney's office that have sustained momentum despite earlier prosecutorial doubts. Similar scrutiny of Anthony Fauci, James Comey, and others stems from parallel reviews of prior official conduct, while lower-priced names like Adam Schiff and Barack Obama reflect thinner evidentiary trails. Upcoming court rulings, congressional testimony demands, and any shifts in enforcement priorities within the resolution window could alter implied probabilities across these outcomes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$357,509
Marché ouvert
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Connexes

icon for Obama arrêté avant 2027 ?

Obama arrêté avant 2027 ?

3%
Oui
icon for José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sera-t-il arrêté d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sera-t-il arrêté d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?

33%
Oui
icon for Lee Jae-myung arrêté avant 2027 ?

Lee Jae-myung arrêté avant 2027 ?

9%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Qui sera arrêté avant 2027 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 24 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Mahmoud Khalil » à 30%, suivi de « John Brennan » à 28%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 30¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 30% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Qui sera arrêté avant 2027 ? » a généré $357.5K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Apr 30, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Qui sera arrêté avant 2027 ? », parcourez les 24 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Qui sera arrêté avant 2027 ? » est « Mahmoud Khalil » à 30%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 30% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « John Brennan » à 28%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Qui sera arrêté avant 2027 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.