Former FBI Director James Comey faces two pending federal indictments, one dismissed in late 2025 on appointment grounds with an appeal ongoing, and a second April 2026 threat case tied to a 2025 social media post. Traders assign a 97.8% probability against a 2026 prison sentence primarily because the North Carolina trial begins only in October, leaving minimal time for conviction, appeals, and sentencing before year-end, alongside active motions to dismiss on First Amendment and selective prosecution grounds. Historical patterns of similar threat prosecutions and ongoing procedural delays reinforce consensus expectations. A rapid plea agreement or expedited ruling could still shift timelines, though current docket status makes such outcomes unlikely within the calendar year.