Mortgage rates, which track the 10-year Treasury yield plus a spread, remain anchored near 6.5% as of mid-June 2026 amid sticky inflation that reached 4.2% in May and elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions. Traders price in limited Federal Reserve easing or potential hikes, with the federal funds rate held steady and the dot plot signaling a higher neutral rate around 3%. This environment has lifted benchmark yields and mortgage-backed securities spreads, preventing the declines once expected after 2024–2025 cuts. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release, FOMC decisions, and any shifts in Treasury supply or labor data that could alter rate-cut expectations before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourWill the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
$50,255 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
↑ 7.00%
40%
↑ 6.75%
39%
↓ 5.90%
57%
↓ 5.70%
22%
↓ 5.50%
-
$50,255 Vol.
↑ 7.00%
$26 Vol.
40%
↑ 6.75%
$131 Vol.
39%
↓ 5.90%
$6,100 Vol.
57%
↓ 5.70%
$6,923 Vol.
22%
↓ 5.50%
$72 Vol.
-
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.Mortgage rates, which track the 10-year Treasury yield plus a spread, remain anchored near 6.5% as of mid-June 2026 amid sticky inflation that reached 4.2% in May and elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions. Traders price in limited Federal Reserve easing or potential hikes, with the federal funds rate held steady and the dot plot signaling a higher neutral rate around 3%. This environment has lifted benchmark yields and mortgage-backed securities spreads, preventing the declines once expected after 2024–2025 cuts. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release, FOMC decisions, and any shifts in Treasury supply or labor data that could alter rate-cut expectations before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Feb 3, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$50,255Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 3, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.Mortgage rates, which track the 10-year Treasury yield plus a spread, remain anchored near 6.5% as of mid-June 2026 amid sticky inflation that reached 4.2% in May and elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions. Traders price in limited Federal Reserve easing or potential hikes, with the federal funds rate held steady and the dot plot signaling a higher neutral rate around 3%. This environment has lifted benchmark yields and mortgage-backed securities spreads, preventing the declines once expected after 2024–2025 cuts. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release, FOMC decisions, and any shifts in Treasury supply or labor data that could alter rate-cut expectations before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
Volume
$50,255Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 3, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mortgage rates, which track the 10-year Treasury yield plus a spread, remain anchored near 6.5% as of mid-June 2026 amid sticky inflation that reached 4.2% in May and elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions. Traders price in limited Federal Reserve easing or potential hikes, with the federal funds rate held steady and the dot plot signaling a higher neutral rate around 3%. This environment has lifted benchmark yields and mortgage-backed securities spreads, preventing the declines once expected after 2024–2025 cuts. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release, FOMC decisions, and any shifts in Treasury supply or labor data that could alter rate-cut expectations before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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