The Iranian regime's entrenched security apparatus, led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has demonstrated resilience amid prolonged U.S.-Israeli military strikes since early 2026 and repeated waves of economically driven protests that authorities have suppressed through lethal force, mass arrests, and expanded recruitment of regime loyalists. Elite cohesion within the security coalition has held despite leadership losses and succession shifts following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, while fragmented opposition lacks the centralized organization or defections needed for systemic change. Ongoing negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues reflect the regime's capacity to manage external pressure without collapse. These factors underpin trader consensus on low odds of regime fall by the June 2027 resolution date, even as economic hardship and sporadic demonstrations continue.