The Iranian regime's institutional continuity and security apparatus have sustained its grip on power amid the fragile post-war ceasefire following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination. Iranian leaders asserted control on May 11 by proposing terms to dictate an end to hostilities, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps quelled earlier economic protests through arrests and maintained order despite ongoing U.S. naval blockades and sanctions. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate no imminent risk of collapse, with the regime retaining public control and pursuing military rebuilding aided by Russia. These factors underpin the 83.5% trader consensus on "No," reflecting high barriers to regime change before 2027 absent major leadership fractures or widespread defections.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$17,909,815 Vol.
$17,909,815 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$17,909,815 Vol.
$17,909,815 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's institutional continuity and security apparatus have sustained its grip on power amid the fragile post-war ceasefire following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination. Iranian leaders asserted control on May 11 by proposing terms to dictate an end to hostilities, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps quelled earlier economic protests through arrests and maintained order despite ongoing U.S. naval blockades and sanctions. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate no imminent risk of collapse, with the regime retaining public control and pursuing military rebuilding aided by Russia. These factors underpin the 83.5% trader consensus on "No," reflecting high barriers to regime change before 2027 absent major leadership fractures or widespread defections.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$17,909,815Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's institutional continuity and security apparatus have sustained its grip on power amid the fragile post-war ceasefire following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination. Iranian leaders asserted control on May 11 by proposing terms to dictate an end to hostilities, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps quelled earlier economic protests through arrests and maintained order despite ongoing U.S. naval blockades and sanctions. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate no imminent risk of collapse, with the regime retaining public control and pursuing military rebuilding aided by Russia. These factors underpin the 83.5% trader consensus on "No," reflecting high barriers to regime change before 2027 absent major leadership fractures or widespread defections.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$17,909,815Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's institutional continuity and security apparatus have sustained its grip on power amid the fragile post-war ceasefire following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination. Iranian leaders asserted control on May 11 by proposing terms to dictate an end to hostilities, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps quelled earlier economic protests through arrests and maintained order despite ongoing U.S. naval blockades and sanctions. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate no imminent risk of collapse, with the regime retaining public control and pursuing military rebuilding aided by Russia. These factors underpin the 83.5% trader consensus on "No," reflecting high barriers to regime change before 2027 absent major leadership fractures or widespread defections.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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