**Traders assign an 84.5% implied probability that Alexandre de Moraes will remain on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) because removal faces steep institutional and political barriers despite recent allegations.** A September 2026 scandal involving messages between Moraes and jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro (linked to the failed Banco Master) and a large consulting contract held by Moraes’s wife’s law firm triggered dozens of new impeachment petitions in the Federal Senate, editorials calling for his exit, and internal STF conflict with Justice André Mendonça. Chief Justice Edson Fachin removed Moraes from a long-running disinformation inquiry and the full court postponed any decision on opening a probe into him until at least mid-December after a request for more time. Senate impeachment requires a two-thirds majority (54 of 81 votes) and is controlled by the Senate president, who has not advanced the queue of petitions. Moraes holds lifetime tenure until age 75, and the October presidential election plus Senate races add further uncertainty to any near-term path for removal. These procedural, evidentiary, and political hurdles underpin the current market pricing.