Eli Crane maintains a narrow but stable lead over Jonathan Nez in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, with roughly 80-96% of ballots counted showing Crane ahead by about 3,700-3,900 votes (49.7% to 48.5%) days after the November 3 election. The district’s Republican lean (R+7 PVI), Crane’s incumbency since 2023, and stronger fundraising and outside spending edge have anchored trader consensus near 98.5% for the Republican. Pre-election ratings from Cook, Sabato, and others classified the seat as Lean or Likely Republican, consistent with Crane’s 2024 margin and the area’s voting patterns despite mixed late polls and Nez’s focus on independents and local issues. A reversal would require an unusually lopsided remainder favoring the Democrat, well beyond current projections and outside the automatic recount threshold.