Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20 state election place the AfD between 16% and 19%, with the latest INSA survey (early August) at 17% and prior July readings slightly higher. This positioning near the 17% threshold, combined with the party’s broader national gains and strong eastern German momentum ahead of concurrent votes in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, supports the modest trader lean toward an “over” outcome. Berlin’s fragmented field—where the Left, CDU, Greens, and SPD cluster in the mid-to-high teens—amplifies uncertainty, as small shifts in turnout or issue salience around immigration, public safety, and coalition performance could move the AfD’s final share across the line. No single late-breaking event has decisively altered the local picture, leaving the market aligned with the narrow polling band and the party’s established trajectory in the capital.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाबर्लिन राज्य चुनाव: एएफडी ओवर/अंडर 17%?
बर्लिन राज्य चुनाव: एएफडी ओवर/अंडर 17%?
ऊपर
59% संभावना
नया
नया
20 सित, 2026
ऊपर
59% संभावना
नया
नया
20 सित, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20 state election place the AfD between 16% and 19%, with the latest INSA survey (early August) at 17% and prior July readings slightly higher. This positioning near the 17% threshold, combined with the party’s broader national gains and strong eastern German momentum ahead of concurrent votes in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, supports the modest trader lean toward an “over” outcome. Berlin’s fragmented field—where the Left, CDU, Greens, and SPD cluster in the mid-to-high teens—amplifies uncertainty, as small shifts in turnout or issue salience around immigration, public safety, and coalition performance could move the AfD’s final share across the line. No single late-breaking event has decisively altered the local picture, leaving the market aligned with the narrow polling band and the party’s established trajectory in the capital.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$3,690समाप्ति तिथि
20 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20 state election place the AfD between 16% and 19%, with the latest INSA survey (early August) at 17% and prior July readings slightly higher. This positioning near the 17% threshold, combined with the party’s broader national gains and strong eastern German momentum ahead of concurrent votes in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, supports the modest trader lean toward an “over” outcome. Berlin’s fragmented field—where the Left, CDU, Greens, and SPD cluster in the mid-to-high teens—amplifies uncertainty, as small shifts in turnout or issue salience around immigration, public safety, and coalition performance could move the AfD’s final share across the line. No single late-breaking event has decisively altered the local picture, leaving the market aligned with the narrow polling band and the party’s established trajectory in the capital.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if AfD wins at least 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if AfD wins less than 17% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
वॉल्यूम
$3,690समाप्ति तिथि
20 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20 state election place the AfD between 16% and 19%, with the latest INSA survey (early August) at 17% and prior July readings slightly higher. This positioning near the 17% threshold, combined with the party’s broader national gains and strong eastern German momentum ahead of concurrent votes in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, supports the modest trader lean toward an “over” outcome. Berlin’s fragmented field—where the Left, CDU, Greens, and SPD cluster in the mid-to-high teens—amplifies uncertainty, as small shifts in turnout or issue salience around immigration, public safety, and coalition performance could move the AfD’s final share across the line. No single late-breaking event has decisively altered the local picture, leaving the market aligned with the narrow polling band and the party’s established trajectory in the capital.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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