Recent polls for the September 20, 2026 Berlin state election show the CDU holding a narrow edge over the AfD, typically in the 19-20% range versus 16-18%, with the Left Party often leading or tied. This positioning underpins the 70% implied probability that CDU voters will outnumber AfD supporters. The CDU benefited from a recent leadership adjustment to Stefan Evers after incumbent mayor Kai Wegner stepped back, alongside its established coalition role with the SPD. The AfD has risen sharply in national and eastern state surveys but faces structural headwinds in the capital’s more urban electorate. Ongoing concerns over infrastructure disruptions and housing costs have not shifted the relative gap between the two parties in the latest surveys.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCDU
72% संभावना
नया
नया
20 सित, 2026
CDU
72% संभावना
नया
नया
20 सित, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls for the September 20, 2026 Berlin state election show the CDU holding a narrow edge over the AfD, typically in the 19-20% range versus 16-18%, with the Left Party often leading or tied. This positioning underpins the 70% implied probability that CDU voters will outnumber AfD supporters. The CDU benefited from a recent leadership adjustment to Stefan Evers after incumbent mayor Kai Wegner stepped back, alongside its established coalition role with the SPD. The AfD has risen sharply in national and eastern state surveys but faces structural headwinds in the capital’s more urban electorate. Ongoing concerns over infrastructure disruptions and housing costs have not shifted the relative gap between the two parties in the latest surveys.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 20, 2026, 2:16 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$2,694समाप्ति तिथि
20 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 20, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls for the September 20, 2026 Berlin state election show the CDU holding a narrow edge over the AfD, typically in the 19-20% range versus 16-18%, with the Left Party often leading or tied. This positioning underpins the 70% implied probability that CDU voters will outnumber AfD supporters. The CDU benefited from a recent leadership adjustment to Stefan Evers after incumbent mayor Kai Wegner stepped back, alongside its established coalition role with the SPD. The AfD has risen sharply in national and eastern state surveys but faces structural headwinds in the capital’s more urban electorate. Ongoing concerns over infrastructure disruptions and housing costs have not shifted the relative gap between the two parties in the latest surveys.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
वॉल्यूम
$2,694समाप्ति तिथि
20 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 20, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls for the September 20, 2026 Berlin state election show the CDU holding a narrow edge over the AfD, typically in the 19-20% range versus 16-18%, with the Left Party often leading or tied. This positioning underpins the 70% implied probability that CDU voters will outnumber AfD supporters. The CDU benefited from a recent leadership adjustment to Stefan Evers after incumbent mayor Kai Wegner stepped back, alongside its established coalition role with the SPD. The AfD has risen sharply in national and eastern state surveys but faces structural headwinds in the capital’s more urban electorate. Ongoing concerns over infrastructure disruptions and housing costs have not shifted the relative gap between the two parties in the latest surveys.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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