Friedrich Merz heads a CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition that retains a narrow Bundestag majority one year after his May 2025 confirmation, which required two parliamentary votes. Despite record-low personal approval ratings near 15-19 percent and ongoing disputes over economic policy and transatlantic tensions, coalition partners have shown no appetite for early dissolution or a no-confidence motion. Parties across the center maintain their firewall against cooperation with the AfD, limiting viable alternative governments. With the next scheduled federal election in 2029 and no immediate procedural triggers for removal, traders assign an 84.5 percent implied probability that Merz will remain chancellor through at least the start of 2027.