UN peacekeepers report surge in Israeli‑Lebanon incidents

May 31 drops to 13%10%

A report of increased Israeli attacks near UNIFIL positions heightened regional security concerns, causing a rapid drop in confidence for the May‑31 outcome as attention shifted to external conflicts.

Sharp rise in market confidence after Netanyahu announces timeline for Rafah opening

May 31 jumps to 31%7%

A clear timetable for reopening Rafah reduced uncertainty about the cease‑fire’s future, causing a sudden surge in the May‑31 probability before it quickly fell as doubts resurfaced.

Israel returns remains of last Israeli hostage from Gaza

May 31 plunges to 8%23%

The recovery of Ran Gvili’s remains removed a key political hurdle, leading traders to favor a May‑31 dissolution as the government could now focus on internal politics rather than cease‑fire negotiations.

Limited travel through Rafah crossing resumes amid ceasefire talks

The partial reopening of the Rafah crossing was interpreted as progress in the ceasefire’s second phase, reducing urgency for a political reset and causing the market’s May‑31 probability to fall while the June‑30 outlook rose sharply.

Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal to Egypt

June 30 surges to 45%31%

The landmark energy agreement was seen as a major diplomatic win for Netanyahu’s government, increasing confidence that his coalition could survive until a June‑30 dissolution, pushing the price sharply upward.

Netanyahu faces internal coalition pressure over Gaza Board of Peace

June 30 surges to 48%31%

Internal coalition divisions regarding the U.S.-led Board of Peace and the future of Gaza governance created renewed speculation about the government's stability.

Netanyahu convenes cabinet on settler violence in the West Bank

June 30 dips to 40%4%

Prime Minister Netanyahu met with top security officials to address rising Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, signaling government focus on security and internal stability rather than political upheaval. This meeting reassured markets about political continuity, contributing to price declines for early dissolution outcomes.

Netanyahu faces renewed calls for early elections amid coalition strain

June 30 plunges to 20%15%

Political analysts warned that coalition fractures could lead to a Knesset dissolution before the June deadline, pushing the June‑30 probability higher again.

UNRWA demolition sparks international criticism and protests

The demolition led to widespread condemnation and protests, increasing domestic political pressure on Netanyahu’s coalition and causing a sharp drop in the market’s confidence that the Knesset would survive until June, pulling the price down sharply.

Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising settler violence in the West Bank

June 30 drops to 12%8%

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with top security officials to address escalating Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, including attacks causing injuries and property damage. The meeting highlighted ongoing security challenges but did not indicate any parliamentary dissolution, reflecting continued political tensions without triggering a government collapse.

Iran protests erupt over currency plunge and economic woes

June 30 drops to 11%6%

Widespread protests in Iran over economic conditions and currency collapse increased regional instability, potentially influencing Israeli political dynamics and market perceptions of parliamentary dissolution likelihood.

Israel approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt

June 30 rises to 20%2%

The approval of a major gas deal with Egypt was seen as a stabilizing factor for the government, reducing the immediate likelihood of a parliamentary dissolution.

Hezbollah‑Israel cease‑fire extended by three weeks

June 30 plunges to 35%21%

The extension reduced the immediate security threat on Israel’s northern front, lowering the perceived need for a political reset and pulling the June‑30 price down.

Israeli UNRWA sites in East Jerusalem targeted and demolished

June 30 plunges to 17%23%

Israel enforced a new law banning UNRWA operations in East Jerusalem, escalating tensions and reflecting ongoing political strife that could impact government stability and parliamentary actions.

UNRWA sites demolished after Knesset legislation

June 30 drops to 56%10%

The Knesset’s enforcement of a law banning UNRWA operations signalled a hardening political stance, reviving concerns of internal instability and nudging the June‑30 probability upward again.

Israel approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt

June 30 surges to 66%26%

The landmark energy deal was seen as a stabilising economic move for the government, reducing pressure for a premature Knesset dissolution and driving the June‑30 price lower.

Israel’s Knesset passes law banning UNRWA operations

June 30 drops to 56%13%

The Knesset approved legislation severing ties with UNRWA, heightening political tensions and prompting speculation that the parliament could be dissolved early to avoid further controversy, boosting the June‑30 option.

Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza

June 30 surges to 66%27%

The military operation to find the last hostage was a critical condition for moving to the next phase of the ceasefire, causing a spike in market uncertainty regarding the government's future.

Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal to Egypt

The historic gas agreement was presented as a boost to Israel’s economy and regional standing, improving the governing coalition’s prospects and reducing immediate pressure for a snap election, which helped lift the June‑30 probability.

Federal judge bars Arizona from prosecuting Kalshi prediction market operator

June 30 surges to 66%25%

A federal judge temporarily blocked Arizona from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, a prediction market platform, highlighting regulatory uncertainty that may influence market perceptions of political event outcomes including Israeli parliamentary dissolution.

Israel launches large‑scale operation to locate last Gaza hostage

June 30 surges to 54%22%

Israel announced a major search effort for the final hostage, signalling progress toward the cease‑fire’s second phase and raising expectations that the Knesset might be dissolved by June 30 to enable a new government formation.

Israeli military launches operation to locate last hostage in Gaza

June 30 drops to 35%5%

Israel intensified efforts to recover the remains of the last hostage in Gaza, reflecting ongoing conflict and political pressures that may affect government stability and parliamentary decisions.

Israeli cabinet debates Rafah crossing opening after hostage recovery

June 30 plunges to 40%26%

Following the recovery of the last hostage’s remains, the cabinet’s discussion of opening Rafah suggested a de‑escalation, causing the market to pull back on the June‑30 outcome.

Israel demolishes UNRWA sites in East Jerusalem amid legal battle

The Israeli Foreign Ministry confirmed demolition of UNRWA facilities, heightening diplomatic tensions and raising speculation that the government might call early elections to consolidate support, nudging the market toward a later dissolution date.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising settler violence in West Bank

June 30 plunges to 40%15%

Netanyahu met with security officials to address increasing Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, highlighting internal political tensions and security concerns that could impact government stability and parliamentary actions.

Netanyahu’s corruption trial resumes, raising political uncertainty

June 30 jumps to 66%8%

The resumption of Netanyahu’s high‑profile corruption trial heightened speculation that political opponents might push for an early Knesset dissolution, pushing the June‑30 probability upward.

Israel launches large‑scale operation to locate last Gaza hostage

Prime Minister Netanyahu announced a major military effort to recover the final Israeli hostage, a step seen as prerequisite for moving to the second phase of the U.S.‑brokered ceasefire, which could delay any parliamentary dissolution until after the June‑30 deadline.