With Israel's legislative elections due by October 27, trader consensus prices an 83.5% implied probability that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not drop out of the race by July 31, driven by his steadfast leadership of Likud amid coalition strains. On May 13, Netanyahu's government filed a Knesset dissolution bill to preempt a Haredi revolt over stalled military draft exemption legislation, aiming to dictate snap election timing around September rather than collapse outright. No official statements indicate resignation plans, despite April opposition unity between Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid and opinion polls showing competitive races. Historical patterns favor incumbents controlling party nominations, underscoring barriers to an abrupt exit before the deadline.